Bitcoin's $100K Comeback Hinges on $98K Breakout and Spot Demand

Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted over $1.7 billion in inflows across three consecutive days, reversing earlier January outflows and pushing BTC toward two-month highs above $97K. The surge in demand is linked to improved macro sentiment and a return of institutional capital after year-end portfolio adjustments. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) led the inflows, drawing more than $648 million on a single day.

The ETF inflows followed a broader rally in crypto markets, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index turning bullish for the first time since October. Bitcoin's price briefly topped $97,957 before pulling back to $96,642 at publishing time, according to Coinbase data. Ethereum and altcoins like Solana and XRP also saw inflows, indicating broad-based institutional interest.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $1.5 billion in inflows over nine trading days in January, marking a significant shift from early-month outflows. The trend reflects a stabilization in institutional demand after a volatile start to 2026.

Why the Move Happened

The return of inflows into Bitcoin ETFs is attributed to macroeconomic clarity and regulatory developments. The latest U.S. consumer price index data showed cooling inflation, supporting expectations of potential rate cuts and boosting appetite for risk assets. Additionally, progress on the U.S. crypto market structure bill has added clarity to the regulatory framework, encouraging institutional participation.

Institutional rebalancing after year-end tax-loss harvesting and the recognition that ETFs provide regulated demand also contributed to the inflows. Fidelity's FBTC and Bitwise's BITB were among the top performers, adding $125.4 million and $30 million, respectively.

How Markets Responded

Bitcoin's price surged past $97K for the first time since mid-November, supported by ETF-driven buying pressure. The move triggered a broader crypto rally, with altcoins like Solana and XRP seeing their own inflows. Ethereum ETFs also recorded positive flows, with BlackRock's ETHA leading the pack with $53 million in inflows.

The inflows pushed the total net assets of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to approximately $128 billion, with smaller spot ETFs tracking altcoins also showing gains. The broader crypto market cap rose 3.3% to $3.32 trillion, with optimism around regulatory clarity lifting investor sentiment.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are monitoring whether the current momentum can be sustained through the first quarter. While ETF flows have improved, volatility remains high, and elevated interest rates continue to pose challenges for non-yielding assets like Bitcoin.

A clean breakout above $100K is seen as a critical next step for Bitcoin. Technical indicators suggest that a close above the 100-day EMA at $95,987 would confirm the short-term bullish outlook. However, a gamma wall of call options at the $100K strike level may cap near-term price movement until positioning resets.

Institutional buying via ETFs continues to tighten Bitcoin's liquid supply, potentially supporting higher prices over time. The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains tied to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and sustained ETF demand.