Bitcoin's $100,000 Threshold: A Macro-Driven Breakout or Bearish Correction?

The debate over Bitcoin's trajectory toward $100,000 has intensified as macroeconomic forces and technical indicators pull in opposing directions. On one hand, bullish catalysts such as gold's meteoric rise, U.S. dollar weakness, and ETF inflows suggest a structural case for higher prices. On the other, bearish technical risks-including bear flags, divergences, and failed breakouts-hint at a potential correction. This analysis dissects the competing narratives to assess whether Bitcoin's $100,000 threshold is a macro-driven breakout or a bearish trap.

Bullish Catalysts: Gold, Dollar Weakness, and ETFs

Gold's performance in 2025 has been a standout, with prices surging to $4,000/oz and forecasts from Goldman Sachs projecting $4,900/oz by year-end 2026. This surge, driven by central bank demand and ETF inflows, underscores a broader shift toward tangible assets as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. Bitcoin's historical role as "digital gold" has faced scrutiny in late 2025, as its price underperformed relative to gold, with the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio halving to 20 ounces per Bitcoin by December. However, proponents argue that Bitcoin's structural advantages-such as its deterministic supply schedule and post-halving dynamics- position it to reclaim its premium as institutional adoption accelerates.

U.S. dollar weakness, another bullish factor, has amplified demand for alternative assets. Geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's accommodative stance have eroded the dollar's purchasing power, pushing investors toward Bitcoin and gold as hedges. ETF inflows, though mixed in late 2025, remain a critical tailwind. For instance, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) accumulated $25.1 billion in 2025, while XRP ETFs absorbed $483 million in December alone. Analysts at JPMorgan argue that Bitcoin's volatility-adjusted valuation relative to gold suggests undervaluation, with mining costs and institutional demand pointing to a $170,000 target within 12 months.

Bearish Technical Risks: Bear Flags, Divergences, and Resistance

Despite these bullish undercurrents, Bitcoin's technical structure tells a cautionary tale. The asset is currently confined within a bear flag pattern, a classic bearish formation that emerged after a failed breakout above $96,000 in late 2025. Immediate resistance levels at $92,216 and $98,000 remain untested, with the price struggling to reclaim previous support-turned-resistance at $88,850. A breakdown below this level could trigger a retest of $75,000, as per bear flag projections.

Divergences in price action further complicate the outlook. Bitcoin's inability to confirm a breakout above the daily TBO Cloud-a key technical indicator-suggests sideways consolidation could persist for weeks. Meanwhile, RSI and MACD indicators, while showing bullish dominance, lack conviction, with RSI hovering above 50 and MACD histograms failing to expand meaningfully. This indecision reflects a market caught between structural strength and tactical fragility.

Elliott Wave analysis adds another layer of bearish concern. Bitcoin's five-wave rally in late 2025 appears to have set the stage for a three-stage correction, with key support levels at $84,000, $70,000, and $58,000 acting as potential floors. ETF outflows in December 2025-$1.09 billion for Bitcoin ETFs and $564 million for Ethereum-further amplify downward pressure. Regulatory uncertainties, including potential exclusions of crypto-heavy firms from major indices, could exacerbate volatility.

The $100,000 Threshold: A Macro-Driven Breakout or Bearish Correction?

The $100,000 threshold hinges on the interplay between macroeconomic forces and technical execution. Bullish scenarios require sustained ETF inflows, dollar weakness, and a rekindling of Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. However, technical risks-including a breakdown of the bear flag and divergences in momentum-suggest a bearish correction is more likely in the near term.

Gold's dominance in 2025 highlights a critical divergence: while Bitcoin's structural case remains intact, its price action has lagged behind traditional safe-haven assets. This underperformance raises questions about whether Bitcoin can attract capital in a market increasingly favoring tangible assets. Meanwhile, the coiled spring-like setup between $85,000 and $93,000 implies a breakout-either bullish or bearish-is imminent.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's $100,000 threshold is a tantalizing target, but it remains contingent on overcoming both technical and macroeconomic hurdles. While gold's ascent and dollar weakness provide a bullish backdrop, bear flags, divergences, and ETF outflows signal a higher probability of a near-term correction. Investors must weigh these competing narratives, recognizing that Bitcoin's path to $100,000 may require a period of consolidation and renewed conviction in its role as a macro hedge.