Bitcoin's $100,000 Surge Drives 60% ATH Prediction

Bitcoin’s (BTC) climb above $100,000 has strengthened confidence in predictions that it will set a new all-time high (ATH) soon. Based on on-chain data, accumulation trends, and market sentiment, there are several compelling reasons to believe Bitcoin may reach a new peak. This article analyzes five key reasons supporting that prediction.

Firstly, the accumulation of whales during May is a significant factor. Data from Glassnode shows that wallets of all sizes are actively accumulating BTC. In early April, accumulation was mainly limited to large whale wallets holding over 10,000 BTC. However, by May, the accumulation trend had spread to smaller wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Meanwhile, wallets holding less than 100 BTC also showed increasing accumulation activity. Additionally, Santiment reports that in the past 30 days, whale wallets have accumulated another 83,105 BTC. This accumulation has helped flip the Spot Volume Delta into positive territory, giving Bitcoin momentum to push higher. Santiment predicted that it may be a matter of time until Bitcoin’s coveted $110,000 all-time high level is breached, particularly after the US & China tariff pause.

Secondly, Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record high of 14 million BTC, which is worth over $1.4 billion. The rise in illiquid supply indicates that long-term investors (HODLers) are holding tightly to their Bitcoin. They have no intention of selling in the short term. Consequently, this reduces the circulating supply, and as demand rises, Bitcoin’s price can break out more easily.

Thirdly, although a new wave of retail investors has yet to emerge fully, CryptoQuant reports that retail trading volume on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange—has started to rebound after a period of decline. Additionally, an analyst at CryptoQuant also observed that while retail volume hasn’t spiked yet, it has shown positive signs. In the coming months, as retail participation increases, we can expect to see growth in Active Addresses, UTXO Count, and metrics like New Addresses and Transfer Volume, reflecting the sustained expansion of the crypto ecosystem.

Fourthly, analysts are closely watching the correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global M2 money supply. According to a crypto expert, the growth in M2— a measure of the money supply from central banks—has accurately predicted Bitcoin’s rise from $76,000 to $105,000 since April 8. Based on this trend, the expert forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in May. This correlation isn’t new. Historically, Bitcoin tends to benefit and rise sharply when global liquidity increases. Given the current macroeconomic conditions, expanding the money supply may continue to fuel Bitcoin’s growth.

Finally, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of Bitcoin reaching a new ATH in May has risen from 11% to 60%, currently at 51%. Polymarket allows users to bet on future events, and this shift reflects growing optimism in the community. As confidence in Bitcoin’s upward potential grows, it could trigger a FOMO (fear of missing out) effect. This may attract more investors and push prices even higher. In fact, Bitcoin has already hit new ATHs in countries where local currencies have depreciated sharply. Experts predict Bitcoin will hit $250,000 by the end of 2025. Besides, Standard Chartered forecasts Bitcoin could reach $120,000 in Q2.