Bitcoin -1.48% as American Bitcoin Increases Treasury to 4,004 BTC

On November 8, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped by 1.48% in the last 24 hours to settle at $101,920.89, continuing a downward trend of 4.47% over the past week and 7.11% over the last month. Despite the near-term drop, the asset posted an 8.8% gain over the last year, indicating a broader upward trajectory amid heightened volatility.

The day saw notable activity from Nasdaq-listed American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC), which announced a significant increase in its Bitcoin treasury to 4,004 BTC, valued at approximately $415 million. The company operates as a Bitcoin treasury and mining firm and is backed by prominent figures including Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. This move highlights growing institutional interest in Bitcoin as a strategic asset and underscores the company’s commitment to leveraging both mining operations and spot-market acquisitions to bolster its reserves.

ABTC’s strategy involves a dual approach—combining large-scale Bitcoin mining with selective spot purchases—to align shareholder interests with Bitcoin’s appreciation cycle. The firm introduced a proprietary metric, “Satoshis Per Share” (SPS), to enhance transparency in its Bitcoin holdings. This approach has drawn attention from both institutional and retail investors, as it aligns with broader trends of corporate diversification into digital assets.

The Trump family’s involvement in ABTC has further amplified the firm’s visibility, with Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. playing key roles in its leadership and strategic direction. According to reports, the Trump family’s crypto-related ventures generated over $800 million in the first half of 2025, highlighting their deep engagement with the digital asset space.

The ABTC announcement came as BlackRock clients withdrew $127 million from the firm’s Bitcoin ETF, raising questions about institutional sentiment toward the asset. While this outflow suggests a potential shift in institutional positioning, the broader market context remains mixed, with Bitcoin holding steady above $102,000. The recent consolidation follows a period of heightened volatility, during which Bitcoin reached new highs in early October before correcting due to whale selling and macroeconomic pressures.

Bitcoin’s price resilience amid these conditions indicates strong underlying demand and ongoing adoption by institutional players. On-chain data also points to increased activity from major holders, such as Bitcoin whale Owen Gunden, who transferred 3,600.55 BTC (approximately $372 million) on November 8. Of this, 500 BTC has already been deposited into Kraken, with the remainder expected to be transferred in the coming days.

Notably, Gunden’s activity is part of a broader trend of whale movements and leveraged trading strategies. For instance, a high-profile whale with a 100% win rate closed a long position and opened a short on 90.63 BTC at 40x leverage, representing a notional exposure of approximately $9.24 million. These developments highlight the continued influence of whale activity on market liquidity and sentiment, particularly in leveraged trading environments.

Backtest Hypothesis

To assess the potential implications of technical indicators in a trading context, a backtest was conducted on Bitcoin price behavior following price levels identified as fractal highs (resistance) and fractal lows (support) between January 1, 2022, and November 8, 2025. The analysis evaluated cumulative returns, hit ratios, and optimal holding periods to determine the effectiveness of trading strategies based on these levels.

Key findings from the backtest suggest that fractal highs act as short-term resistance. When Bitcoin hit a fractal high, short-term mean-reversion was observed, with median 1- to 10-day returns ranging from -0.6% to -0.3%. The win rate for these events was generally below 50%, and statistically significant negative returns were observed during the first trading week. This implies that fading rallies immediately after a fractal high might offer a slight edge for traders.

In contrast, fractal lows showed a mild upside bias. Price bounces were evident, with a day-1 pop of approximately +0.8% and a 62% win rate. However, the advantage over passive holding diminished after two weeks, and the cumulative 30-day gain of +2.7% lagged behind Bitcoin’s unconditional average gain of +3.3% over similar periods. This suggests that while fractal lows can offer entry opportunities, their effectiveness is limited to short-term setups.

Interpreting these results, fractal highs and lows may serve as tactical tools within broader strategies. For instance, traders could consider tightening stops near fractal highs to manage risk or scaling in near fractal lows to capitalize on potential bounces. However, neither signal alone is sufficient for generating outsized long-term alpha, emphasizing the need for integration with other indicators and market context.