Bitcoin +0.33% Amid Saylor and Whale Activity

On NOV 2 2025, BTC dropped by 0.05% within 24 hours to reach $110020.29, BTC dropped by 2.53% within 7 days, rose by 0.39% within 1 month, and rose by 17.59% within 1 year.

Saylor's Signal and Market Sentiment

Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy Inc., has reinvigorated speculation about another corporate Bitcoin purchase with a cryptic post referencing “orange,” a known trigger for market watchers. Strategy Inc. currently holds 640,000 BTC, valued at roughly $71 billion, with a cost basis of $74,302 per coin. Saylor’s latest action follows a quiet $43 million purchase of 390 BTC, reinforcing his long-term conviction in Bitcoin as an inflation hedge and a store of value.

The post coincided with renewed market optimism, as Bitcoin stabilized above the $110,000 level. Analysts note that institutional inflows and record ETF accumulation have created a bullish backdrop, potentially amplifying the impact of Strategy Inc.’s next move. Saylor’s public commentary, while poetic, has historically aligned with major purchases, making his signal a focal point for investors and market observers alike.

Whale Activity and On-Chain Dynamics

Significant whale activity continues to shape Bitcoin liquidity. On November 2, Owen Gunden, a prominent whale linked to Solana, deposited 193.77 BTC into Kraken, valued at approximately $21.49 million. Gunden still holds 8,922 BTC, valued at $990.85 million, highlighting his entrenched exposure in the market.

Meanwhile, the “1011 Insider Whale” deposited 500 BTC into Kraken, adding to a cumulative 6,503 BTC moved to centralized exchanges over the past three weeks. This translates to around $7.27 billion in liquidity shifts, signaling potential strategic positioning or risk management activity. Such whale movements are closely monitored as indicators of capital reallocation and possible near-term price influence.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the market dynamics observed, a backtesting strategy has been proposed to analyze the effectiveness of trading Bitcoin at resistance levels. The strategy is designed to capture breakout momentum by defining resistance using the highest close in the last 50 days. A buy signal is triggered when the price pulls back to within 5% below this resistance level, with the expectation of a retest and potential breakout.

Long positions are held until a stop-loss at 8% below the entry point is triggered, or until a trailing stop of 5% is breached. Maximum holding days are capped at 10 to avoid exposure to unexpected reversals. Daily closing prices will be used for signal generation, ensuring consistency and minimizing noise.

The benchmark for performance will be the HOLD.P ETF, and the backtest will cover the period from January 1, 2022, to November 1, 2025. This timeframe encompasses a range of market conditions, including major bull and bear phases, offering a robust test of the strategy’s resilience and effectiveness.