Bird Flu Chaos Creates Thai Poultry Goldmine: How TFG & GFPT Will Feast on Brazil’s Misery

The global poultry market is in chaos. On May 16, 2025, the EU and China abruptly suspended all poultry imports from Brazil—the world’s largest chicken exporter—after an outbreak of H5N1 bird flu. This $10.6 billion demand vacuum won’t be filled by anyone but Thailand, whose poultry giants ThaiFrang (TFG) and Gulf (GFPT) now stand to capture unprecedented market share. Here’s why investors should act fast before this window closes.

The Brazil Blackout Creates a Golden Opportunity

Brazil’s suspension isn’t just a temporary hiccup. China’s 60-day ban lasts until mid-July, while the EU’s indefinite restrictions depend on eradicating the H5N1 strain. In 2024, Brazil supplied 562,000 tons of chicken to China (10% of Thailand’s total exports) and 231,000 tons to the EU (4.5% of exports). These markets will turn to Thailand, the world’s #1 exporter of processed poultry, which already holds 26.9% global market share.

Thailand’s edge? Quality at scale. While Brazilian chicken sells for €135/100kg, Thailand’s premium processed products (marinated, halal-certified, and value-added) command 35% higher prices in EU markets. This pricing power is amplified by EU broiler prices hitting €284/100kg—double Brazil’s cost—due to its own bird flu-driven supply crunch.

Why TFG & GFPT Are the Winners

1. TFG (ThaiFrang): The largest integrated poultry processor in Southeast Asia, TFG controls 40% of Thailand’s broiler production. Its vertically integrated model (breeding, feed, processing) ensures consistent quality. In Q4 2024 alone, TFG shipped 180,000 tons of processed chicken to EU and Japan—a figure set to surge as Brazil’s exports dry up. Analysts predict 15-20% revenue growth in H2 2025.

2. GFPT (Gulf): Gulf’s poultry division supplies 1.2 million metric tons annually, leveraging its $2 billion vertically integrated supply chain. Its advanced biosecurity standards (meeting EU’s “disease-free zone” requirements) make it a trusted partner. Gulf’s shares have already risen 18% YTD on export optimism, but this is just the start.

The Catalysts to Watch

• EU Import Data: Track Thailand’s Q3 poultry exports to the EU. A >25% YoY jump would validate market share gains.
• China Reopening: As tourism rebounds, demand for premium Thai chicken (used in restaurants) will explode. Thailand’s 2024 processed chicken exports grew 13.8%, but 2025 could see +30% growth.
• Stock Sentiment: Both stocks trade at 12x forward P/E, below their 5-year average of 15x. A single earnings beat could trigger a rerating.

Risks? Yes. But the Upside Outweighs Them

• Brazil’s Recovery: If Brazil controls the outbreak in 60 days, Thailand’s gains are temporary. However, re-entering China requires Beijing’s approval of regionalization—a process that could take months.
• Competitor Surge: US poultry exporters are already targeting China, but their 2025 exports dropped 9% due to their own bird flu outbreaks. Thailand’s halal certification and proximity to Asia give it an edge.
• Feed Costs: Soy/corn prices remain low, keeping production costs in check. Thai feed prices are 20% below 2023 highs.

Final Call: Buy Now—Before the Vacuum Fills

The Brazil bird flu isn’t just a shock—it’s a generational pivot in global poultry trade. Thailand’s poultry giants are poised to capture $2.3 billion in lost Brazilian exports to EU/China. With a 60-day window and Brazil’s uncertain recovery, investors who move now will profit from the inevitable shift in trade flows.

Action Items:1. Buy TFG at <THB 45/share (current: THB 42). Target: THB 55 by Q4.2. Accumulate GFPT at <THB 200/share. Upside: THB 250 if EU exports surge.3. Set alerts for weekly export data from Thailand’s Customs Department.

The bird flu crisis is a disaster for Brazil—but a goldmine for Thai poultry. Don’t miss the flight.