Bipartisan Deal Ends Historic Shutdown, ACA Subsidy Battle Looms

The U.S. government shutdown, now in its 39th day—the longest in U.S. history—appears poised to end between November 12–15, 2025, as bipartisan negotiations in the Senate gain momentum. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) signaled optimism on Saturday, stating that lawmakers are finalizing plans to pass three full-year funding bills for key programs and a stopgap measure to extend government operations through late January, according to a Star Advertiser report. The developments come after weeks of stalled talks, with Republicans and Democrats now working collaboratively to address funding gaps for agencies overseeing agriculture, veterans' services, and congressional operations, as reported by a CNBC report.

The stopgap funding, initially set to expire on November 21, would be replaced by legislation to keep the government operational until January 2026, according to Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), as the CNBC report noted. However, a resolution remains contingent on securing at least eight Democratic votes, as the party has demanded a one-year extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance subsidies. Thune reiterated that negotiations on the subsidies—which affect 24 million people—will occur after the government reopens, according to an ABC News report.

The shutdown has already strained critical programs. The First Five Years Fund reported that 10,000 children and families have lost access to Head Start early-learning services due to funding freezes, as noted in the Star Advertiser report. Air travel disruptions have also worsened, with over 3,400 delays and 900 cancellations nationwide as air traffic controllers face staffing shortages, according to a Fox 32 Chicago report. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy confirmed that international flights remain unaffected, citing international agreements, as the Fox 32 Chicago report noted.

On Sunday, the Senate passed a funding bill to end the shutdown, with bipartisan support from Sens. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) and others, according to a Coinpedia report. The measure allows the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to resume operations, potentially accelerating decisions on spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. The crypto market responded positively, with Bitcoin surging 1.8% to $106,399, as the Coinpedia report reported.

Despite these strides, challenges persist. The CFTC's expanded regulatory role in crypto markets, outlined in a separate bipartisan draft bill, remains pending as the government shutdown has delayed legislative timelines. Analysts warn that political maneuvering in the coming weeks could still disrupt progress, as the Coinpedia report noted.