BIOUSDT Market Overview: Bearish Bias with Key Support and Divergence Signals

• Price declined from 0.1448 to 0.1392, forming a bearish trend with key support at 0.138.
• Volume spiked during the rally to 0.148 but waned as price retracted, indicating weakening momentum.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish divergence, suggesting further downside potential.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the bounce, signaling heightened volatility.
• Turnover remained elevated despite the pullback, suggesting continued interest.

At 12:00 ET − 1 on 2025-10-02, Bio Protocol/Tether (BIOUSDT) opened at 0.1434 and closed at 0.1392 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03. The pair reached a high of 0.148 and a low of 0.138 during the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was 31,988,200.8 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,640,386. The price action formed a bearish continuation pattern with bearish momentum indicators.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish continuation pattern as it broke below a key support at 0.1432, with a recent low of 0.138 acting as a potential floor. A doji appeared near 0.148 after a sharp bounce, signaling indecision among buyers. The price failed to retest the prior high of 0.1448 on the second attempt, suggesting bearish exhaustion among bulls.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. The 50-period line acted as a resistance level during multiple attempts to reclaim 0.1448. On the daily chart, the 200SMA held above the current price, indicating a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remained bearish with no signs of a reversal. RSI dipped below 30, entering oversold territory, but price failed to retrace meaningfully, indicating weak bullish conviction. Divergence between RSI and price action suggests the downtrend could extend further.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the bounce to 0.148 and then contracted during the subsequent sell-off, signaling a potential consolidation phase. Price has remained below the 20-period lower band for much of the session, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally to 0.148, confirming the move, but sharply declined during the pullback to 0.138, indicating weak follow-through buying. Turnover remained elevated despite the bearish price action, suggesting sustained interest. Price and turnover aligned during the rally, but diverged during the decline, raising concerns about sustainability.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high (0.148) to the low (0.138) include 0.1434 (61.8%) and 0.1412 (38.2%). Price broke below 0.1434, confirming bearish bias, and is now approaching 0.1412 as a potential next target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Using the observed bearish divergence in RSI and MACD, as well as the bearish crossover of the 20SMA and 50SMA, a backtesting strategy could be constructed to enter short positions on confirmation of a break below 0.1434 with a stop-loss above 0.1448. A target could be set at 0.138 or 0.1374, based on Fibonacci and prior support. The volume profile also supports the strategy, as reduced volume during the decline suggests weak reversals. This setup would align with the observed bearish structure and momentum indicators, offering a high-probability short opportunity with defined risk.