Biohaven Surges 9.2% on Groundbreaking Cancer Drug Data: Is This the Start of a Bullish Reversal?

Summary
• Biohaven (BHVN) rockets 9.2% to $11.58, hitting a 12-month high of $11.71
• Phase 1 trial of BHV-1510 shows 72.7% confirmed response rate in pre-treated cancer patients
• Safety profile outperforms peers with no interstitial lung disease cases
• Options frenzy: 95 contracts traded for January 16 $12.5 call, 1,293 for same-dated put

Biohaven’s stock erupted on Thursday as clinical data for its experimental Trop2 ADC BHV-1510 ignited investor frenzy. The 9.2% surge—driven by 72.7% confirmed objective response rates in advanced cancer patients—has pushed the stock above its 52-week high of $44.28. With options volume spiking and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the market is now debating whether this is a short-term pop or the start of a larger reversal in a stock down 69% year-to-date.

BHV-1510’s Clinical Breakthrough Ignites Investor Optimism
Biohaven’s explosive move stems from Phase 1 trial data showing BHV-1510 in combination with cemiplimab achieved 72.7% confirmed objective response rates in pre-treated patients with advanced cancers. Notably, 100% response rates in endometrial cancer and 60% in non-small cell lung cancer—despite prior PD-(L)1 therapy—highlight the drug’s potential to address treatment-resistant tumors. The safety profile further differentiates it: no interstitial lung disease cases and manageable oral mucositis compared to peers. With 18 patients remaining on therapy beyond six months, the data suggests durable responses, fueling speculation about accelerated clinical development and partnership potential.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on BHVN’s Volatility with Gamma-Driven Calls
• 200-day average: $16.98 (well below current price)
• RSI: 63.13 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: -0.56 (bullish crossover pending)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $11.58, above 9.37 midline

Biohaven’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias despite long-term bearish trends. Key support at $9.44 and resistance at $14.26 define the near-term range. The stock’s 3.59 beta and 1.9% turnover rate indicate high volatility but limited liquidity, favoring options over direct equity plays. Two contracts stand out for gamma-driven momentum:

• BHVN20260116C12.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $12.50
- Expiry: Jan 16, 2026
- IV: 129.31% (high volatility)
- Delta: 0.51 (moderate directional sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0305 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0837 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: $204,186
- Leverage: 7.46%
- Payoff at $12.16 (5% up): $0.66/share
- This call offers asymmetric upside with high gamma to capitalize on continued momentum. The 129% IV implies strong market expectations, while the 7.46% leverage amplifies returns if the stock holds above $12.50.

• BHVN20260417C12.5
- Type: Call
- Strike: $12.50
- Expiry: Apr 17, 2026
- IV: 129.38% (near-identical to Jan contract)
- Delta: 0.618 (higher directional exposure)
- Theta: -0.0145 (slower decay)
- Gamma: 0.0430 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: $20,620
- Leverage: 3.62%
- Payoff at $12.16: $0.66/share
- This longer-dated option balances time decay with directional potential. The 129% IV and 0.618 delta make it ideal for a bullish hold, while the 3.62% leverage reduces capital outlay.

Aggressive bulls should consider BHVN20260116C12.5 into a break above $12.50. The high gamma and theta decay create a 'buy-the-dip' scenario if the stock consolidates near this level.

Backtest Biohaven Stock Performance
The backtest of BHVN's performance after a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 50.66%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.88%, and the 30-Day win rate is 53.83%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.96%, which occurred on day 55, suggesting that BHVN can capitalize on intraday surges effectively.

Biohaven’s Bull Case Gains Legs: Watch for $12.50 Breakout
Biohaven’s 9.2% surge is driven by compelling clinical data and a favorable safety profile for BHV-1510, but sustainability depends on maintaining momentum above $12.50. The 72.7% response rate in pre-treated patients and absence of interstitial lung disease position BHV-1510 as a differentiated Trop2 ADC, potentially attracting partnerships or accelerated trials. Investors should monitor the $12.50 psychological level and the January 16 $12.5 call (BHVN20260116C12.5) for gamma-driven follow-through. Meanwhile, sector leader Amgen (AMGN) rose 0.28%, offering context for broader biotech sentiment. Act now: Buy BHVN20260116C12.5 if $12.50 is tested, or short-term bulls can scalp the $11.50–$12.50 range with tight stops.