Biodesix (BDSX) Surges 47% on Strong Earnings and EBITDA Optimism – Can This Momentum Sustain?

Summary
• Biodesix (BDSX) rockets 47.38% intraday to $8.0472, defying a 13.72 RSI (oversold) and bearish MACD (-0.467).
• Q4 revenue jumps 41% to $28.8M, FY2025 revenue hits $88.5M (+24%), with EBITDA positivity affirmed.
• Turnover surges 1,867% to 71.1M shares, with price range spanning $6.94 to $9.83.
• Amid conflicting headlines—"financial hurdles" vs. "strong guidance"—investors grapple with a stock trading at 47% above prior close. This volatility underscores a pivotal inflection point for Biodesix, as its lung diagnostics segment drives growth but faces liquidity headwinds.

Earnings Surge and EBITDA Optimism Ignite Short-Term Rally
Biodesix’s 47.38% intraday surge stems from its preliminary Q4 and FY2025 results, which exceeded guidance. The company reported $28.8M in Q4 revenue (+41% YoY) and $88.5M for FY2025 (+24% YoY), driven by 47% growth in lung diagnostics revenue. CEO Scott Hutton affirmed positive Adjusted EBITDA in Q4, a stark contrast to a $3.9M loss in the prior-year period. While the stock’s 13.72 RSI suggests oversold conditions, the bearish MACD (-0.467) and short-term bearish Kline pattern indicate caution. The rally reflects optimism over EBITDA turnaround and lung test volume growth, but liquidity concerns (free cash flow deficit of -$8.95M) and high debt ($72M+) remain critical risks.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility with BDSX20260116P7.5
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day average: $3.22 (far below current price of $8.05)
- RSI: 13.72 (oversold)
- MACD: -0.467 (bearish)
- Bollinger Bands: $5.34–$8.25 (current price near upper band)
- 30D support/resistance: $6.82–$6.88
• Trading Setup: The stock is in a short-term bearish trend but trading near its 52W high of $23.56. Key levels to watch include the 200-day MA ($3.22) and 30D support ($6.82). A break above $8.25 (Bollinger upper band) could trigger a test of the 52W high, while a drop below $6.82 may reignite bearish momentum. The leveraged ETF data is unavailable, but sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO) is down 1.66%, suggesting broader market caution.
• Top Option: BDSX20260116P7.5
- Type: Put
- Strike Price: $7.50
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV Ratio: 30.00% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.016 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.000039 (minimal time decay)
- Gamma: 0.143 (high sensitivity to price changes)
- Turnover: 1,450 shares
- Leverage Ratio: 1.15%
- Price Change Ratio: -6.67%
- Payoff Calculation: Assuming a 5% upside to $8.45, the put’s intrinsic value is $0.95/share. With a delta of -0.016, the option’s price would rise slightly, but its low leverage (1.15%) limits upside. This contract is ideal for hedging a potential pullback, as its high gamma (0.143) ensures responsiveness to price swings. However, the low delta and leverage make it unsuitable for aggressive bullish bets.
• Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider a short-term long call if the stock breaks above $8.25, but the put offers a safer hedge against volatility.

Backtest Biodesix Stock Performance
The backtest of BDSX's performance following a 47% intraday increase from 2022 to the present indicates positive short-to-medium-term gains, with win rates and returns increasing across various time frames. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 6.73%, suggesting that while there is potential for growth, the performance may not consistently exceed moderate levels.

Biodesix at a Crossroads: EBITDA Optimism vs. Liquidity Risks
Biodesix’s 47% intraday surge reflects optimism over EBITDA positivity and lung diagnostics growth, but technical indicators (oversold RSI, bearish MACD) and liquidity risks (free cash flow deficit, $72M debt) suggest caution. The stock’s 52W high of $23.56 remains a distant target, while the 200-day MA at $3.22 acts as a critical support level. Sector leader Thermo Fisher (TMO) is down 1.66%, highlighting broader market fragility. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA and 30D support ($6.82) for directional clues. For options traders, the BDSX20260116P7.5 put offers a low-cost hedge against volatility, but its limited leverage makes it a defensive play. Action: Watch for a breakdown below $6.82 or a breakout above $8.25 to determine next steps.