Billionaires Sell Amazon Stock and Buy a Quantum Computing Stock Up 3,050% Since 2023

The central investor question is whether this is a strategic reallocation from mature AI to nascent quantum computing, and what it signals about market inflection points. The trades by billionaire hedge fund managers Israel Englander, Ken Griffin, and Steven Schonfeld in Q3 2025 suggest a deliberate pivot. They sold significant stakes in Amazon, a company effectively using artificial intelligence to boost sales and improve efficiency, and bought shares in Rigetti Computing, a quantum pioneer. The scale of the moves is telling: Griffin cut 35% of his Amazon position, Englander reduced his by 17%, and Schonfeld slashed his by 72%.

This rotation is not a blind bet. It coincides with a broader market shift that has interrupted quantum computing's hot streak. While Rigetti has surged 3,050% since January 2023, the sector saw its momentum reversed starting in October 2025 as the market's appetite for risk declined. Both Rigetti and its peer IonQ are now well down from the highs they touched in October, with Rigetti down about 60% from its peak. The managers' purchases appear to be contrarian bets on a potential resurgence, buying into a sector that has been heavily sold off.

The signal is one of inflection. These are not speculative plays by unknowns; they are moves by managers who beat the S&P 500 over the past three years. Their decision to exit a proven AI leader for a quantum stock trading at a fraction of its peak value points to a belief that the risk-off correction has created a buying opportunity in a high-conviction, long-term thesis. It suggests they see quantum computing not as a speculative fad, but as a strategic asset class where a major pullback may have overcorrected, setting the stage for a potential re-rating when market sentiment improves. The bottom line is a calculated bet that the quantum computing narrative, despite its technical hurdles and recent price carnage, remains intact and poised for a comeback.

The Quantum Thesis: From Hype to Tangible Commercial Reality

The quantum computing investment thesis rests on a powerful, quantifiable growth narrative. The market is projected to expand from $1.6 billion in 2025 to $7.3 billion by 2030, a compound annual growth rate of 34.6%. This isn't speculative futurism; it's a market being actively built with billions in venture capital and corporate commitments. The financial momentum is clear, but the real test is separating near-term commercial traction from the long-term technological horizon.

The industry is demonstrably transitioning from theory to practice. Recent milestones provide concrete evidence of progress. In March 2025, IonQ and Ansys achieved a significant milestone by running a medical device simulation on IonQ's 36-qubit computer that outperformed classical high-performance computing by 12 percent. This stands as one of the first documented cases of quantum computing delivering practical advantage in a real-world application. Similarly, Google announced the Quantum Echoes algorithm breakthrough, demonstrating the first-ever verifiable quantum advantage running the out-of-order time correlator algorithm, which runs 13,000 times faster on Willow than on classical supercomputers. These are not incremental improvements; they are the foundational steps toward the promised "quantum advantage" that justifies the massive investment.

Yet, this progress exists alongside a stark reality of commercial nascentness. The selection process for government benchmarking initiatives reveals the competitive and selective nature of the field. Rigetti Computing has not yet been advanced to the next stage of a key government-funded quantum computing benchmarking initiative, while IonQ was. This gap highlights that even with significant funding and technical prowess, the path to commercial viability remains narrow and highly competitive. The market's appetite for risk, as seen in the sell-off starting in October 2025, further underscores that current valuations are pricing in future potential, not present profits.

The bottom line is a bifurcated timeline. In the near term, the commercial reality is defined by hybrid workflows in finance and pharma, and pilot projects like D-Wave's work in drug discovery. The medium term hinges on achieving quantum advantage in targeted industries, a goal now within sight. The long-term horizon, marked by IBM's 2029 roadmap for fault-tolerant systems, remains distant. For investors, the thesis is to bet on the structural growth of the market and the companies leading the hardware and software breakthroughs that make commercial reality possible, while acknowledging that the gap between today's tangible milestones and tomorrow's widespread use is still significant.

The Risk & Valuation Spine: Assessing the Quantum Premium

The investment case for quantum computing pure-plays is a story of extreme valuation and a bifurcated timeline. On one side, there are real, near-term pilots and hybrid workflows generating tangible revenue. On the other, the promise of a commercially viable, error-corrected quantum computer capable of solving intractable problems remains a decade or two away. This creates a precarious investment environment where the market is pricing in success far ahead of its realization.

The valuation metrics tell a stark story of unsustainable expectations. D-Wave Quantum trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 294. This is not a multiple for a growing business; it is a multiple for a future that has not yet arrived. History provides a clear warning: after the dot-com bubble, even the most hyped internet darlings saw valuations plummet by nearly 80%. The quantum computing sector is now in a similar position, where the market has assigned a massive premium to a technology still in its infancy.

The financial reality for many players underscores this disconnect. Rigetti Computing, for instance, reports a gross margin of -6,849.48%. This is not a marginally profitable company; it is a business burning cash at an extraordinary rate to fund its research and development. Its stock is down about 60% from its October peak, a sharp correction that reflects the market's growing impatience with the path to profitability. The recent surge in insider selling at D-Wave, including from its CEO and CFO, is a further red flag, suggesting those closest to the business see limited near-term commercial traction despite the lofty valuation.

The core risk is a timeline mismatch. The capital markets are rewarding companies for securing government contracts and running pilot programs-real milestones that demonstrate technical progress. Yet these are not the same as achieving the commercial scale needed to justify a multi-billion dollar market cap. As one analysis notes,

. This creates a dangerous dynamic: near-term gains from pilots can fuel continued speculation, but the long-term capital requirements for scaling to a million physical qubits are immense and unproven.

The bottom line is that the quantum computing thesis is a high-stakes bet on a distant future. The extreme valuations, massive losses, and the stark gap between current pilots and future utility create a fragile foundation. For investors, the question is not whether the technology will eventually succeed, but whether the market has already priced in that success at a level that leaves no room for the inevitable delays, technical setbacks, and capital needs of the next decade.

The Catalysts & What Could Change the Narrative

The quantum computing investment thesis is binary. It hinges on a shift from speculative funding to tangible validation, a process driven by specific milestones and a broader market mood. For investors, the roadmap is clear: monitor the next government contract, the next technical benchmark, and the next market cycle.

The most immediate catalyst is the next major government contract. The U.S. Air Force contract that drove Rigetti's more than 80% surge in September is a textbook example. Such awards are not just revenue; they are powerful credibility signals that de-risk a technology path. The absence of a similar win, as seen in the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative where Rigetti was not selected for Stage B, can trigger a sharp de-rating, as the stock's subsequent 60% decline from its peak demonstrates. The next DARPA selection or a similar Defense Department award will be a critical litmus test for a company's technological standing.

The ultimate validation, however, is a technical one: achieving fault-tolerant quantum computing. This is the industry's "holy grail," and IBM's public roadmap provides the critical north star. The company's goal of delivering 200 logical qubits and 100 million gates by 2029 is a concrete, multi-year target that the entire sector is implicitly racing toward. Progress toward this milestone-whether through error correction breakthroughs, logical qubit demonstrations, or scaling achievements-will be the single most powerful force for long-term narrative validation. Until then, the sector remains in a phase of proving its foundational capabilities.

The overarching catalyst, though, is often external: a shift in market risk appetite. The sector's sharp sell-off starting in October 2025 as the market's appetite for risk declined is a stark reminder. Quantum stocks are not immune to macro sentiment; they are high-beta, long-duration plays. Their performance is intrinsically linked to the broader tech cycle and investor willingness to pay for distant potential. A sustained rally in risk assets, like the one that powered the 42% year-to-date gain in the Defiance Quantum ETF earlier in 2025, can provide a powerful tailwind. Conversely, a risk-off environment can swiftly erase gains, regardless of company-specific progress.

The bottom line is a dual-track narrative. Near-term catalysts are binary events-government contracts and technical benchmarks-that can cause sharp, directional moves. The long-term thesis depends on a secular shift in market sentiment toward high-growth, high-risk technology. For now, the path forward is paved with milestones to hit and market cycles to navigate.