Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $497,000 by 2025

Chamath Palihapitiya, a billionaire tech investor and early Bitcoin proponent, has predicted that the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could reach approximately $497,000 by October 2025. This forecast is based on historical halving-cycle averages and increased institutional adoption. Palihapitiya's estimate is derived from a clean regression of Bitcoin’s past halving-cycle performance, which shows that the average return across the three previous cycles—2012, 2016, and 2020—ranged from 20x to 120x from the halving date to the cycle peak. Projecting this trend from the most recent halving in April 2024 suggests that Bitcoin’s top could be around $497,000.

Palihapitiya argues that the current cycle, supported by more institutional participation and favorable regulation, might follow a slightly compressed but still aggressive path. Unlike the retail-led frenzies of 2017 and 2021, this time, ETFs and sovereign interest are expected to help cushion volatility. This institutional involvement is seen as a stabilizing factor that could lead to a more sustained and less volatile price increase.

One of the strongest data confirmations for Palihapitiya’s bullish stance comes from miner behavior. Despite profitability dropping to one of the lowest levels in recent memory, data shows miner reserves have remained stable in 2025. BTC outflows from miner wallets to exchanges are minimal, indicating that miners are opting to hold rather than sell. This behavior suggests long-term confidence, possibly in anticipation of a second-leg rally. The Miner-to-Exchange Flow Ratio remains low, historically a sign that miners are not contributing significant sell pressure, which is another positive indicator for bulls.

On-chain data also supports a healthy Bitcoin price consolidation. The MVRV Z-Score, a popular on-chain metric used to identify market tops and bottoms, currently resides in a neutral-to-slightly elevated range. This indicates that Bitcoin is mildly overvalued compared to its historical average cost basis, but not in euphoric territory. During previous cycles, the MVRV Z-Score peaked well above its current levels, leaving room for further upside before red flags emerge. Additionally, exchange reserves of Bitcoin continue to decline, suggesting that more BTC is being moved to cold storage or custodial solutions, thereby reducing the short-term liquid supply and supporting higher Bitcoin price floors.

While Palihapitiya’s target is among the more ambitious forecasts in the current market, he is not alone in his optimism. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has floated the idea of a $750,000 BTC price in a blow-off top scenario. Several macro analysts have also pointed to $300,000 to $500,000 Bitcoin price ranges if current ETF flows persist. The big difference is that Palihapitiya’s projection is grounded in cyclic data rather than macro narrative alone, providing a more data-driven basis for his prediction.