Bill Gates Warns World Is Moving Backwards, Cites 5-Year Deadline to Avoid New Dark Age

Bill Gates has raised concerns about the direction of global development, stating that the world is moving backward after decades of progress. In his annual letter, the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist highlighted a critical reversal in 2025, where the number of under-five child deaths increased for the first time in this century.

Gates attributed this regression to reduced funding for global health and development programs, particularly from wealthy nations. He noted that 2025 saw a rise in deaths of young children from 4.6 million in 2024 to 4.8 million, marking a significant shift from previous years of declining mortality rates.

According to the Gates Foundation's Goalkeepers Report, a 20% reduction in development assistance for health could result in an additional 12.5 million child deaths by 2045. The report is based on modeling from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.

Why Did This Happen?

Gates criticized the cost-cutting measures enacted under the Trump administration, particularly those implemented by the Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE). He argued that these cuts could directly lead to preventable deaths and have stalled progress on global health.

Gates emphasized that the world is at a crossroads, where the next five years will be critical in determining whether global development can be reaccelerated. While he remains optimistic about the future, he acknowledged that the path ahead is challenging.

How Did Markets Respond?

Despite his concerns, Gates remains bullish on the potential of artificial intelligence to drive progress. He sees AI as a transformative force that can help restore and even exceed previous gains in global development.

To address the funding gap, Gates is calling on other wealthy philanthropists to increase their contributions. He pointed to the rising number of billionaires, now exceeding 2,700 in 2024, as a potential source of support for global health and development initiatives.

The Gates Foundation has taken a significant step by committing $100 billion of its assets to philanthropy over the next 20 years. Gates joined the Giving Pledge in 2010, alongside Warren Buffett and Melinda French Gates, and has since encouraged other billionaires to follow suit.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The Gates Foundation's report highlights the importance of reversing recent cuts in aid to poor countries. Gates argued that aid spending, even in the most generous countries, accounts for less than 1% of GDP. Restoring these funds, he said, will be essential to getting global development back on track.

Looking ahead, Gates is focused on leveraging AI to address global challenges. He believes that innovation powered by artificial intelligence will be a key driver of future progress. This aligns with his broader vision of using technology to improve healthcare, education, and climate resilience.

The Gates Foundation's efforts have drawn attention from other philanthropists and policymakers. With a growing number of billionaires and even centibillionaires, Gates sees an opportunity for increased collaboration to address global challenges.