Bill Ackman Predicts Trump May Postpone Tariffs To Avoid Recession

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has predicted that President Donald Trump may postpone the implementation of tariffs scheduled for this week. Ackman, the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, believes that the President could be under significant pressure from various stakeholders to delay the tariffs. With limited time to negotiate trade deals before the tariffs take effect, Ackman suggests that Trump might announce a postponement to allow for more strategic deal-making.

Ackman's prediction comes in the wake of Trump's executive order setting a baseline tariff of 10% on all imports, effective April 5. Additional tariffs targeting countries with significant trade imbalances are expected to follow on April 9. Ackman argues that pausing the tariffs would provide more time for agreements to be reached and allow businesses to prepare, potentially averting an economic recession.

The investor has previously warned about the economic risks posed by Trump's tariffs, urging a delay to prevent a recession. He has also stressed that business confidence is waning and that tariffs could lead to increased costs that firms cannot absorb. Ackman calls for diplomatic negotiations to address these issues, highlighting the importance of strategic deal-making in the current economic climate.

Ackman's views on the tariffs have evolved over time. Initially, he supported Trump's tariffs as a necessary step to address longstanding trade issues that have harmed American workers. However, he has since called for a pause in their implementation to avoid an "economic nuclear winter." Ackman's stance reflects a growing concern among economists and business leaders about the potential impact of the tariffs on the global economy.

The financial markets have reacted strongly to the tariff announcement, with significant losses in the U.S. stock market on April 4. Ackman believes that this week could be a crucial period, as the President's decision on whether to move forward with or delay the tariffs might shape the economic landscape in the coming months. The investor's prediction adds to the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and their potential impact on the global economy.

According to Ackman, the President's phone has likely been "ringing off the hook" with calls from other countries asking for deals or compromises on tariffs. Since there’s not enough time to have discussions with each leader, the president may announce that the tariffs will be postponed. This move would give the president time to properly resolve this critical issue and to allow companies, large and small, the time to prepare for changes in their supply chains. The risk of not doing so is that the massive increase in uncertainty drives the economy into a recession, potentially a severe one.

One thing is for sure. This week will be one of the more interesting days in the country’s economic history. Ackman's prediction underscores the high stakes involved in the tariff decision and the potential for significant economic repercussions. As the world watches, the outcome of this week's developments will be closely monitored by investors, economists, and policymakers alike.