Bilibili Soars 9.65% on Intraday Surge: What's Fueling the Bullish Momentum?

Summary
• Bilibili (BILI) surges 9.65% to $31.985, hitting a 52-week high of $32.07
• Options volume spikes 310% as traders buy 37,067 call options
• Analysts highlight AI-driven profitability shift and $1.5B buyback plan
• RSI at 82.16 signals overbought territory amid bullish technicals

Bilibili’s intraday rally has ignited investor frenzy, with the stock surging nearly 10% on robust options activity and strategic corporate moves. The move follows a Simply Wall St. analysis touting AI-driven cost cuts and a $1.5B buyback plan as catalysts. Technicals and options data suggest momentum is accelerating, but sustainability remains tied to key price levels and sector dynamics.

AI-Driven Profitability Shift and Buyback Plan Ignite Bilibili's Rally
Bilibili’s 9.65% intraday surge is directly tied to a Simply Wall St. report highlighting its AI-fueled cost-cutting strategy and a $1.5B share repurchase program. The firm’s Q3 2025 earnings revealed record user growth and profitability, with management signaling a long-term breakeven timeline. Options traders amplified the move, with 37,067 call options traded—310% above average volume—indicating strong conviction in the bull case. The buyback plan, combined with AI-driven operational efficiency, has rekindled investor optimism about Bilibili’s ability to outperform its consumer discretionary peers.

Interactive Media & Services Sector Mixed as Bilibili Outpaces Peers
While Bilibili’s rally is stock-specific, the broader Interactive Media & Services sector shows mixed momentum. Netflix (NFLX), the sector leader, edged up 0.43%, underscoring divergent performance. Bilibili’s AI-driven profitability and aggressive buyback differentiate it from peers like Disney or Warner Bros. Discovery, which face stagnating ad revenue and content costs. The stock’s 79% nine-month gain versus the sector’s flat performance highlights its unique catalysts.

Options and Technicals: Capitalizing on Bilibili’s Breakout Momentum
• 200-day MA: $23.20 (well below current price)
• RSI: 82.16 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.56 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $22.59–$28.56 (price above upper band)

Bilibili’s technicals confirm a short- to medium-term bullish trend, with key support at $29.64 (intraday low) and resistance at $32.07 (52-week high). The RSI’s overbought reading suggests caution, but the MACD’s positive histogram and Bollinger Band breakout indicate momentum is intact. For leveraged exposure, consider BILI20260116C30 and BILI20260116C31.

• BILI20260116C30
- Type: Call
- Strike: $30
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 57.70% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 15.05%
- Delta: 0.829 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.258 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.118 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 127,511 (high liquidity)
- Payoff (5% up): $1.595 per contract
- Why: High liquidity and gamma make this ideal for a short-term breakout trade.

• BILI20260116C31
- Type: Call
- Strike: $31
- Expiration: 2026-01-16
- IV: 59.67% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 22.62%
- Delta: 0.675 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.248 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.162 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: 55,474 (strong liquidity)
- Payoff (5% up): $0.999 per contract
- Why: Strong gamma and leverage ratio position this for a directional bet on a $32.07 breakout.

Aggressive bulls should target a close above $32.07 to validate the 52-week high and trigger a retest of $32.50.

Backtest Bilibili Stock Performance
The backtest of BILI's performance after a 10% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains, highlighting the stock's potential for positive movement following a significant upward catalyst. The 10-day return rate stands at 0.98%, with a maximum return of 5.40% over 57 days, indicating that BILI can maintain momentum post-surge, making it a promising investment option for those looking to capitalize on intraday volatility.

Bilibili's Bull Case Strengthens: Position for a Breakout Above $32.07
Bilibili’s 9.65% surge is underpinned by AI-driven profitability and a $1.5B buyback, with technicals and options data confirming bullish momentum. While the RSI’s overbought reading warns of near-term volatility, the MACD and Bollinger Band breakout suggest the rally has legs. Investors should monitor the $32.07 level for a breakout confirmation and the $29.64 support for a potential pullback entry. With the sector leader Netflix (NFLX) up 0.43%, Bilibili’s outperformance highlights its unique catalysts. Position for a breakout above $32.07 or a retest of $29.64 to capitalize on this momentum-driven trade.