Bilibili Surges 6.5% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• Bilibili (BILI) surges 6.47% to $24.34, breaking above its 52-week low of $12.72
• Options chain shows 20 active contracts with 88.25% implied volatility on 2025-08-22 expirations
• Institutional investors like LGT Fund Management and Federated Hermes boost stakes
• RSI at 34.20 (oversold) and MACD bullish crossover signal short-term momentum

Bilibili’s 6.3% intraday rally defies its recent 52-week low trajectory, driven by options-driven speculation and institutional accumulation. With Q3 earnings on August 21, the move raises questions about sustainability versus a pre-earnings squeeze play. The stock’s -2004.19x PE ratio and 52-week low make it a high-risk, high-reward trade.

Options Volatility and Institutional Accumulation Fuel BILI's Rally
Bilibili’s 6.3% intraday gain is fueled by a combination of options market activity and institutional buying. The options chain shows 20 active contracts with implied volatilities ranging from 61.23% to 151.19%, indicating heightened speculative interest. Contracts like BILI20250822C24 and BILI20250822C24.5 show leverage ratios of 16.48% and 20.19%, respectively, suggesting aggressive bullish positioning. Institutional investors, including LGT Fund Management and Federated Hermes, have added $3.21M and $25.73M in Q1 and Q2, signaling confidence in the stock’s long-term potential. Meanwhile, the stock’s 52-week low of $12.72 and -2004.19x dynamic PE ratio highlight its deep undervaluation, making it a target for both speculative and value-driven capital.

Consumer Discretionary Sector Volatility: BILI Outpaces NFLX’s 0.2179% Move
Bilibili’s 6.3% intraday gain starkly contrasts with the broader Consumer Discretionary sector’s muted performance. While Netflix (NFLX) edged up 0.2179%, BILI’s rally reflects its unique position as a high-beta play in the streaming space. The sector’s 1-year return of +79.75% (BILI) versus +49.14% (HSI benchmark) underscores its growth potential. However, BILI’s -2004.19x PE ratio versus NFLX’s healthier valuation highlights the risks of its speculative trade. The divergence suggests BILI’s move is driven by specific catalysts—like options-driven momentum and institutional accumulation—rather than sector-wide trends.

Options and ETF Playbook: Capitalizing on BILI’s Volatility
• 200-day MA: $19.75 (well below current price)
• RSI: 34.20 (oversold territory)
• MACD: 0.234 (bullish crossover with signal line at 0.383)
• Bollinger Bands: $21.39–$25.48 (current price near upper band)
• Turnover rate: 0.246% (low liquidity, but options volume is robust)

Bilibili’s technicals and options data present a high-conviction short-term trade. The stock is trading near its 52-week low but shows strong short-term momentum, with RSI in oversold territory and MACD suggesting a bullish crossover. The options market is particularly active: two top picks stand out.

1. BILI20250822C24
• Code: BILI20250822C24
• Type: Call
• Strike: $24
• Expiry: 2025-08-22
• IV: 84.25% (high volatility)
• LVR: 16.48% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: 0.5577 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1183 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1169 (high sensitivity to price changes)
• Turnover: 3,718 (high liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.98 (26.4% return on $3.718 notional)
This contract offers a balance of leverage and liquidity, ideal for a short-term bullish bet. The high gamma ensures it gains value quickly if the stock breaks above $24.5.

2. BILI20250822C24.5
• Code: BILI20250822C24.5
• Type: Call
• Strike: $24.5
• Expiry: 2025-08-22
• IV: 82.13% (high volatility)
• LVR: 20.19% (aggressive leverage)
• Delta: 0.4974 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.1122 (rapid time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1211 (very high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 1,610 (solid liquidity)
• Payoff at 5% upside: $0.71 (44.4% return on $1.610 notional)
This contract’s high leverage and gamma make it ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a breakout above $24.5. The 20.19% leverage ratio amplifies potential returns if the stock surges.

Action Plan: Aggressive bulls should target BILI20250822C24.5 into a break above $24.5. Conservative traders can use BILI20250822C24 as a core position with a stop below $23.5. The options’ high gamma and IV suggest they’ll respond sharply to price moves, making them ideal for a short-term trade ahead of Q3 earnings.

Backtest Bilibili Stock Performance
The backtest of BILI's performance after an intraday increase of 6% shows favorable short-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 47.85%, the 10-Day win rate at 49.18%, and the 30-Day win rate at 50.22%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 6.56%, which occurred on day 57 after the intraday surge. This indicates that BILI tends to experience positive short-term gains following a significant intraday increase.

Act Now: BILI’s Breakout Hinges on $24.5 Support
Bilibili’s 6.3% intraday surge reflects a confluence of options-driven momentum, institutional accumulation, and technical oversold conditions. The stock’s proximity to its 52-week low and -2004.19x PE ratio make it a high-risk, high-reward play. While the options market suggests strong short-term conviction, the key test will be whether the stock can hold above $24.5 ahead of its August 21 earnings report. Investors should monitor the 200-day MA at $19.75 as a critical support level and watch for follow-through volume. With Netflix (NFLX) up 0.2179%, the broader sector remains mixed, but BILI’s unique catalysts—like its options activity and institutional buying—make it a standout. Act now: Buy BILI20250822C24.5 for a 5% upside target or short-term ETF exposure if the stock breaks $24.5.