Bilibili Surges 5.16% on AI-Driven Momentum: Is This the Start of a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Bilibili (BILI) surges 5.16% to $33.02, hitting its 52-week high of $33.19
• AI marketing integration and Q3 2025 earnings beat drive optimism
• Options chain shows aggressive call buying ahead of 1/23 expiration

Bilibili’s stock is trading at its highest level since January 2026, fueled by a combination of AI-driven marketing strategy announcements and strong earnings performance. The stock’s intraday range of $32.75 to $33.19 reflects heightened volatility, with options activity suggesting speculative positioning. Analysts are split between viewing the P/S ratio as a warning sign or a justified bet on future growth.

AI Marketing Integration Ignites Bilibili's Bullish Surge
Bilibili’s 5.16% intraday rally is directly tied to its recent announcement of fully integrating AI into marketing processes in 2026. The company reported 20% consecutive quarterly advertising revenue growth, driven by AI-enhanced content targeting and a one-stop AI marketing strategy center. This aligns with Q3 2025 earnings that beat expectations, with analysts upgrading the stock to 'Buy' as cost-cutting and profitability focus gain traction. The move reflects investor confidence in Bilibili’s ability to leverage AI for scalable revenue growth, despite a P/S ratio of 3.1x that remains above industry peers.

Interactive Media Sector Volatile as Bilibili Outpaces Peers
The Interactive Media and Services sector is mixed, with Bilibili’s 5.16% gain contrasting against Netflix’s -1.17% decline. While Bilibili’s AI-driven marketing strategy is unique to its content-centric model, the sector’s broader challenges include pricing wars and shifting consumer spending. Bilibili’s focus on AI integration positions it as a disruptor, but its elevated P/S ratio remains a risk if revenue growth slows below analyst forecasts of 9.5% annually.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on Bilibili's AI-Driven Rally
• RSI: 82.89 (overbought)
• MACD: 1.16 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.40, Histogram: 0.76
• 200-day MA: $23.32 (far below current price)
• Bollinger Bands: $21.58–$30.94 (price at upper band)

Bilibili’s technicals suggest a short-term overbought condition, but the stock remains in a long-term bullish trend. Key support at $24.48 (200D MA) and resistance at $33.19 (52W high) define the near-term range. Aggressive bulls should watch for a break above $33.19 to confirm a new uptrend. The options chain shows heavy call buying at the $32 strike, with implied volatility at 53.06% indicating elevated expectations.

Top Options Picks:
• BILI20260123C32: Call, Strike $32, Expiry 1/23, IV 53.06%, Leverage 18.87%, Delta 0.66, Theta -0.137, Gamma 0.126, Turnover 42,874
- High liquidity and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside target (projected price $34.67). Payoff: $2.67/share.
• BILI20260123C29.5: Call, Strike $29.5, Expiry 1/23, IV 60.24%, Leverage 25.41%, Delta 0.88, Theta -0.138, Gamma 0.059, Turnover 18,300
- Strong gamma and IV suggest sensitivity to price swings. Payoff at $34.67: $5.17/share.

Aggressive bulls may consider BILI20260123C32 into a breakout above $33.19, while BILI20260123C29.5 offers leverage for a continuation of the current rally.

Backtest Bilibili Stock Performance
The backtest of BILI's performance after an intraday surge of at least 5% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-term gains, with the 3-Day win rate at 47.61%, the 10-Day win rate at 49.27%, and the 30-Day win rate at 50.31%. However, the maximum return during the backtest period was only 5.42%, which suggests that while there is a good chance of positive returns in the short term, the overall performance is modest.

Bilibili's AI Momentum: Ride the Wave or Watch Cautiously
Bilibili’s AI-driven marketing strategy and earnings momentum have created a short-term bullish catalyst, but the stock’s 3.1x P/S ratio remains a risk if growth slows. Investors should monitor the $33.19 52-week high as a critical breakout level and watch for a breakdown below $24.48 (200D MA) to signal a reversal. The sector leader Netflix’s -1.17% decline highlights the importance of differentiating Bilibili’s AI-driven narrative from broader industry headwinds. For now, the options market is pricing in aggressive optimism—position accordingly.