BigBear.ai Stock Tumbles 3.64% Despite NFL Partnership Boost Q2 Profit Slump Drags Volume to 321st Rank

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) closed August 25, 2025, with a 3.64% decline, trading at $0.28 billion in volume, ranking 321st in market activity. The stock’s recent performance reflects mixed signals from its business developments and market sentiment.

A pivotal development came on August 20 with a multi-year partnership with the Washington Commanders, rebranding the team’s training facility as the BigBear.ai Performance Center. The deal, highlighted as a strategic move to enhance brand visibility, initially boosted the stock by 2% post-announcement. CEO Kevin McAleenan framed the partnership as a step toward leveraging AI capabilities to expand growth opportunities in high-profile sectors.

However, the company’s Q2 earnings report, released August 11, cast a shadow over its outlook. Revenue fell to $32.5 million, down 18% year-over-year, driven by disruptions in U.S. Army contracts. The net loss surged to $228.6 million, including a $71 million goodwill impairment. While cash reserves increased to $390.8 million, management slashed 2025 revenue guidance to $125–$140 million, withdrawing adjusted EBITDA forecasts amid uncertainty in key programs.

Analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Cantor Fitzgerald raised its price target to $6, maintaining an “Overweight” rating, citing long-term AI trends and financial flexibility. A “Moderate Buy” consensus reflects diverging views, with two analysts advocating a “Strong Buy” and three recommending a “Hold.” The stock’s 240% annual surge contrasts with recent volatility, as investors weigh near-term challenges against potential catalysts like the NFL deal and a $380 million backlog.

The backtested trading strategy of purchasing the top 500 stocks by daily volume from December 2021 to August 2025 yielded $2,940 in profit, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.53. The best month, December 2021, returned $840, while August 2025 recorded the worst loss of $790, alongside a maximum drawdown of $1,960.