BigBear.ai's Q2 Results Disappoint Despite Cantor Fitzgerald's Price Target Hike

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) reported Q2 results that missed expectations due to federal program disruptions. Despite this, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver raised the price target to $6.00 and maintained an Overweight rating. The rating affirmation is based on "secular tailwinds and improved financial flexibility" for the company.

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) reported its Q2 2025 earnings, revealing a significant miss in both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue compared to analyst forecasts. The company reported an EPS of -$0.71, which was significantly below the anticipated -$0.06, resulting in a surprise of over 1,083%. Revenue also did not meet expectations, totaling $32.5 million against a projected $41.19 million, marking a 21.1% shortfall [1].

The earnings report highlighted the challenges BigBear.ai faces in meeting market expectations. The company cited unmet U.S. Army contract expectations amid federal modernization delays as the primary reason for the underperformance. This led to a reduction in full-year revenue guidance to between $125.0 million and $140.0 million, down from its previous range of $160.0 million to $180.0 million [1].

Despite the earnings miss, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Jonathan Ruykhaver raised the price target to $6.00 and maintained an Overweight rating. Ruykhaver's affirmation is based on "secular tailwinds and improved financial flexibility" for the company [2]. BigBear.ai ended the quarter with over $390.0 million in available cash, which the firm expects to deploy in coming quarters through business reinvestment and complementary acquisitions [1].

The stock dropped 15.80% with $1.28 billion in volume after the Q2 earnings release [2]. While the earnings report raised concerns about the company's short-term performance, analysts like Ruykhaver remain optimistic about the long-term potential, citing the company's strong balance sheet and growth prospects in the defense AI sector.

References:
[1] https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/hc-wainwright-lowers-bigbearai-stock-price-target-to-8-on-revenue-miss-93CH-4184821
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/bigbear-ai-slides-15-80-earnings-disappointment-1-28b-volume-ranks-58th-2508/