BigBear.ai 2025 Q3 Earnings Profitability Returns with 116.7% Net Income Surge

BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) reported mixed Q3 2025 results, returning to profitability with a $0.01 EPS but missing revenue estimates. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance of $125–140 million, excluding the impact of its pending $250 million AskSage acquisition.

Revenue

The company’s total revenue fell 20.1% year-over-year to $33.14 million in Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing industry headwinds and operational challenges.

Earnings/Net Income

BigBear.ai turned a $15.13 million net loss in Q3 2024 into a $2.52 million profit in Q3 2025, marking a 116.7% improvement. The EPS rebound from -$0.06 to $0.01 underscored a significant operational turnaround.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

A 30-day buy-and-hold strategy post-earnings underperformed the stock’s standalone performance and the S&P 500. The strategy’s 14.76% CAGR over three years lagged behind BBAI’s 27.52% and the market’s 17.83%. Short-term volatility limited gains, with a 30-day window failing to capture full post-rally potential. The conservative approach offered downside protection but constrained upside, suggesting a longer holding period or dynamic selling strategy may better align with BBAI’s volatility profile.

CEO Commentary

CEO Kevin McAleenan highlighted the AskSage acquisition as a strategic milestone, targeting $25 million in annual revenue by 2025. He emphasized cross-selling opportunities in federal and commercial markets, despite challenges from the U.S. government shutdown, which paused 20% of contracts.

Guidance

BigBear.ai maintained its FY 2025 revenue guidance of $125–140 million, excluding AskSage’s contribution. With $715 million in liquidity, the company aims to accelerate AI deployments and M&A activity ahead of anticipated 2026 government AI spending.

Additional News

1. M&A Activity: BigBear.ai announced a $250 million acquisition of AskSage, a FedRAMP-certified generative AI platform, to bolster secure defense solutions. The deal is expected to close by late Q4 2025.

2. Institutional Investment: Wedbush Securities acquired a 0.08% stake in BBAI, valued at $1.67 million, signaling institutional confidence in the company’s strategic direction.

3. Government Disruptions: The U.S. government shutdown temporarily halted 20% of the company’s contracts, though 80% remained mission-critical, highlighting resilience in core operations.

CEO Kevin McAleenan with the AskSage acquisition team

BigBear.ai’s Q3 results reflect a pivotal shift toward profitability, albeit amid revenue declines. The AskSage acquisition and robust liquidity position the company to capitalize on AI-driven defense growth in 2026. However, short-term volatility and government disruptions remain key risks.