BHP Stock Plunges 3.16% to 46.115 as Bearish Signals Intensify

BHP Group's stock has experienced a notable downturn recently, declining 3.16% to close at 46.115 on June 20, 2025, marking the third consecutive day of losses with a cumulative drop of 5.70%. This analysis employs multiple technical indicators to assess the current market structure and potential future movements.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a bearish dominance, with three consecutive long red candles demonstrating strong selling pressure. The June 20 session printed a decisive down candle with a high of 47.33 and a low of 45.98, establishing a new critical support zone between 45.98–46.00. Resistance is evident near 48.71 (June 17 high), reinforced by the psychological 50.00 level. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or engulfing candles suggests ongoing bearish momentum, though the extended decline makes the stock increasingly susceptible to a technical bounce if it holds above the 46.00 support.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages exhibit a bearish alignment, with all three trending downward and positioned above the current price. The short-term 50-day SMA (approximately 48.80) recently crossed below both the 100-day (49.50) and 200-day (50.30) SMAs, confirming a death cross pattern that typically signals prolonged bearish momentum. With the price trading 5.7% below the 50-day SMA and 8.2% below the 200-day SMA, the moving average framework suggests entrenched downward pressure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains negative, reflecting bearish momentum as the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD) holds above the MACD line. Recent momentum divergence is absent, though oversold conditions may develop if the downtrend persists. The KDJ oscillator, with the %K line at 20 and %D at 25, hovers near oversold territory, though not yet signalling a reversal. Confluence between oversold KDJ readings and other indicators near the 46.00 support could foreshadow stabilization.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the June 20 sell-off, reflecting a volatility surge. The close near the lower band (calculated using a 20-day SMA of 48.90 and standard deviation of 1.5) suggests a potential short-term exhaustion point. A pronounced band contraction in the prior week has resolved to the downside, supporting the bearish trend, but the extreme position outside the lower band indicates the current move may be overextended, raising the probability of a reversion toward the 48.20 mid-band.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate the bearish trend, with the June 20 sell-off registering 5.16 million shares—the highest single-day volume in six weeks. Down days have consistently recorded higher volume than up days, affirming strong distribution. This volume climax on June 20, accompanied by a 3.16% decline, signals capitulation, which may exhaust near-term selling pressure if support holds, though sustained high volume remains bearish.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reading of 29, calculated using the formula based on average gains and losses, sits below the 30 oversold threshold. While this may suggest undervaluation, the indicator has not yet formed positive divergence against price lows, tempering reversal expectations. Historically, BHP has remained oversold for extended periods during strong downtrends, so this reading should be interpreted as a warning rather than a standalone buy signal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the April 9 low of 40.66 and the June 11 high of 51.05 yields critical support at the 38.2% (47.08) and 50% (45.86) retracements. The current price at 46.115 resides just above the 50% level, creating a confluence support zone with the June 20 low of 45.98. A decisive break below 45.86 would target the 61.8% retracement at 44.63, while resistance tiers appear at 47.08 (38.2%), 48.45 (23.6%), and 49.35 (June 16 high).
Confluence among the oversold RSI, KDJ near extremes, Fibonacci support at 45.86, and volume climax enhances the significance of the 45.98–46.00 support zone for potential stabilization. Divergences are currently absent, as all momentum and trend indicators align with the bearish price action. While technical factors suggest a near-term bounce from oversold conditions is probable, sustained recovery requires reconquering the 48.20–48.71 resistance band to invalidate the current bearish structure.