BHP Shares Rally 5.58% In Four Days As Technicals Signal Sustained Uptrend

BHP Group shares rose 2.58% in the most recent session, marking the fourth consecutive daily gain with a cumulative 5.58% advance over this period. This upward momentum brings the closing price to $53.18, approaching the session's high of $53.875 while maintaining above the daily low of $52.905. The analysis below examines technical indicators to assess the sustainability of this move within the context of the year-long price action.
Candlestick Theory
The current four-day bullish sequence features higher highs and higher lows, establishing immediate support near $51.50 (recent consolidation zone) and resistance at $53.88 (July 21 high). A long upper shadow on July 21's candle ($52.905 low to $53.875 high) suggests temporary hesitation near the $54 psychological barrier. This pattern may indicate potential profit-taking pressure, requiring confirmation in subsequent sessions.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average ($49.72) crossed above the 100-day moving average ($48.95) in late June, generating a bullish signal. Price remains firmly above all key moving averages (50-day: $49.72, 100-day: $48.95, 200-day proxy: $50.10), confirming a sustained uptrend. The ascending 50-day average now acts as dynamic support, with its upward slope reflecting strengthening intermediate momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows sustained positive territory since early June, with the MACD line (12-day EMA) maintaining its position above the signal line (9-day EMA of MACD). Concurrently, the KDJ indicator registers at 82, 76, and 94 for K, D, and J lines respectively, approaching overbought territory. While this suggests strong upside momentum, it also flags near-term exhaustion risk given the J-line's proximity to 100.
Bollinger Bands
Price consistently trades near the upper Bollinger Band ($53.50, 20-day SMA +2σ), indicating strong bullish momentum. The bands expanded sharply during the July rally, reflecting increasing volatility. Historically, such expansions preceded minor consolidations, implying that a reversion toward the 20-day SMA ($51.40) could offer potential entry opportunities.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent gains occurred on expanding volume, with the July 21 session trading 15% above the 20-day average volume. This confirms buyer conviction behind the breakout. Notably, the highest volume spikes occurred during key upside reversals in early July and mid-June, validating accumulation at support levels. Divergence is absent as volume consistently confirms price direction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. While this suggests diminishing upside momentum in the short term, it remains well above the bullish support zone of 40-50. The absence of bearish divergence (RSI continues making higher highs alongside price) indicates the uptrend may have further room before significant consolidation, though traders should monitor for potential overextension.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the major downtrend from $58.82 (October 2024) to $39.73 (April 2025) reveals that current prices test critical resistance. The $54.74 level (78.6% retracement) aligns with the recent $53.875 high, creating a technical confluence zone. A decisive break above this barrier would target the 100% retracement at $58.82. Support clusters appear near the 61.8% ($51.53) and 50% ($49.28) retracements, corresponding with recent consolidation areas.
Confluence exists between Bollinger Band resistance ($53.50), psychological resistance at $54.00, and the Fibonacci 78.6% level ($54.74), suggesting this zone may trigger profit-taking. However, the alignment of moving averages, volume confirmation, and MACD momentum indicates underlying strength. Key divergence is noted as RSI nears overbought while KDJ's J-line approaches extreme territory, warranting vigilance for near-term consolidation despite the prevailing uptrend.