BHP Group Surges 4.12% Amid Copper Optimism and Strategic Shifts—What’s Fueling This Rally?

Summary
• BHP Group (BHP) surges 4.12% to $55.705, hitting an intraday high of $55.71
• CEO Mike Henry highlights Argentina’s Vicuna copper basin and U.S. investment allure
• Options chain shows heavy activity at $55 and $57.5 strike prices
• Sector peers like Rio Tinto (RIO) rise 2.75%, but BHP outperforms on copper growth optimism

BHP Group’s sharp intraday rally has captured market attention, with the stock surging 4.12% to $55.705 as of 7:38 PM. The move coincides with CEO Mike Henry’s emphasis on Argentina’s copper potential and U.S. investment appeal, despite a lack of direct earnings catalysts. With the stock trading near its 52-week high of $63.21, traders are scrutinizing technical indicators and options activity to gauge sustainability.

Copper Growth and U.S. Investment Allure Drive BHP’s Rally
BHP’s intraday surge is anchored in CEO Mike Henry’s recent remarks to shareholders, where he underscored the company’s four major copper growth basins, including the Vicuna joint venture in Argentina and the U.S. Resolution project with Rio Tinto. Henry also highlighted the U.S.’s lower power costs as a strategic advantage for mining investment, contrasting with Australia’s productivity challenges. While the stock lacks immediate earnings news, the focus on copper—a critical metal for energy transition—has reignited investor optimism. Additionally, the absence of bearish sentiment in recent analyst ratings (average 'Hold') and the $1.1 billion loan bid for Stanmore Resources’ BHP mine further bolster the narrative.

Mining Sector Gains Momentum as BHP Outperforms Peer Rio Tinto
The broader mining sector has seen mixed momentum, with Rio Tinto (RIO) rising 2.75% on its own U.S. investment focus but trailing BHP’s 4.12% gain. Copper prices have surged due to mine disruptions, and platinum markets remain tight, per Kitco News. BHP’s outperformance reflects its aggressive copper expansion strategy and strategic U.S. positioning, contrasting with peers like Anglo American, which recently merged with Teck Resources. The sector’s strength is evident in BHP’s 15.68 P/E ratio, below the 18.2 average for global miners, suggesting undervaluation amid commodity tailwinds.

Options and Technicals Signal Aggressive Bullish Setup for BHP
• MACD: -0.20 (bearish divergence), RSI: 37.72 (oversold), Bollinger Bands: $51.71–$56.74 (current price near upper band)
• 200-day MA: $50.32 (well above), 30-day MA: $54.33 (supportive)
• Key Levels: Support at $53.09–$53.17 (30-day range), resistance at $56.74 (Bollinger upper band)

BHP’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish bias, with RSI in oversold territory and price near the Bollinger upper band. The 30-day MA at $54.33 provides near-term support, while the 200-day MA at $50.32 acts as a long-term floor. Options activity highlights two high-conviction plays:

• BHP20251017C55 (Call, $55 strike, expiring 10/17):
- IV: 30.73% (moderate), Leverage: 27.40%, Delta: 0.57, Theta: -0.0346, Gamma: 0.0911, Turnover: 428,276
- Payoff at 5% upside (58.49): $3.49/share. This contract offers a balance of liquidity and leverage, ideal for capitalizing on a breakout above $56.74.
• BHP20251017C57.5 (Call, $57.5 strike, expiring 10/17):
- IV: 29.56% (moderate), Leverage: 61.81%, Delta: 0.34, Theta: -0.0323, Gamma: 0.0887, Turnover: 148,720
- Payoff at 5% upside (58.49): $0.99/share. High leverage and decent gamma make this a speculative play for a sharp move above $57.50.

Aggressive bulls should consider BHP20251017C55 into a test of $56.74. If the 52-week high of $63.21 is in sight, BHP20251017C60 (Leverage: 139.06%) could offer explosive potential, though it requires a larger move.

Backtest BHP Group Stock Performance
Below is a concise review of the study together with an interactive back-test panel you can open on the right.Key points• Entry rule – Buy BHP (ticker: BHP) on any trading day when the stock closes ≥ 4 % above the previous close (intraday surge). • Exit / risk control – If no other rule is given, positions are liquidated after a maximum of 10 trading days; no stop-loss or take-profit was imposed. • Test window – 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-25, close-to-close prices. • Performance – The strategy delivered an aggregate return of −10.37 % (annualised −1.79 %), with a 37.5 % maximum draw-down and slight negative Sharpe. Average trade return was −0.31 % (wins +7.26 %, losses −7.05 %). Why we chose a 10-day holding cap The user did not specify an exit rule; to keep the test objective yet finite, a 10-trading-day window (≈ two weeks) is a common horizon in event-based studies and prevents stale open positions from distorting results.Open the panel for the full trade list, equity curve and statistics:Feel free to adjust the exit rule (e.g., add stop-loss / take-profit or longer holding periods) and rerun if you’d like to explore alternative risk profiles.

BHP’s Copper Play Gains Momentum—Act Now on Key Levels
BHP’s rally is underpinned by strategic copper expansion and U.S. investment optimism, with technicals suggesting a short-term bullish bias. The stock’s proximity to the Bollinger upper band and oversold RSI indicate a potential continuation of the move. Traders should monitor the $56.74 resistance and $53.09 support levels. With Rio Tinto (RIO) up 2.75%, the sector remains in focus. For immediate action, BHP20251017C55 offers a balanced leveraged play, while BHP20251017C57.5 suits aggressive bulls. Watch for a breakout above $56.74 to confirm the trend.