BGA trade group: Germany's exporters forecast 2.5% drop in exports and 4.5% rise in imports for 2025

BGA trade group: Germany's exporters forecast 2.5% drop in exports and 4.5% rise in imports for 2025

Germany's export-oriented economy is bracing for a challenging year ahead, according to forecasts from the German Trade Association (BGA). The association predicts a 2.5% drop in exports and a 4.5% rise in imports for 2025 .

The BGA report highlights several factors contributing to these projections. One of the primary drivers is the ongoing impact of US trade tariffs, which have significantly affected German exports. In July 2025, German exports to the United States dropped to their lowest level since 2021, with a 7.9% decline from the previous month . This decline has been compounded by broader economic pressures, including high energy costs and weak demand.

The report also notes that Germany's overall exports contracted by 0.6% in July 2025, marking the fourth straight monthly decline . This contraction, coupled with a 0.1% contraction in imports, has narrowed Germany's trade surplus to €14.7 billion. The trade figures reflect a broader slowdown in the German economy, which contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, driven by reduced investments and exports .

The BGA forecasts that the manufacturing sector's contraction, evidenced by a PMI of 45.2 in November 2024, could dampen growth prospects in 2025 . Additionally, potential new US trade tariffs under President-elect Trump could particularly impact major economies like Germany and the Netherlands .

Despite these challenges, the international freight market is expected to show stronger growth in 2025, with a projected increase of 2.4% to €133.4bn . This suggests growing confidence in cross-border trade recovery, which may help offset some of the negative impacts on German exports.

The German government has responded to these challenges with various measures, including a €10 billion subsidy package for exporters that includes tax breaks and R&D funding . Industry groups like VDA are also advocating for diversification to Asia and Africa, with exports to China up 5% in H1 2025 despite slowdowns . Investments in green tech aim to offset losses, with €50 billion allocated for EV transitions.

In conclusion, while the BGA forecasts a challenging year ahead for Germany's exporters, the resilience of the domestic market and efforts to mitigate trade barriers offer some hope for the future. The sector must navigate a complex landscape of environmental regulations, rising costs, and labor challenges, but the anticipated growth in international freight markets suggests potential opportunities for recovery.