Bets Are Flooding Into Polymarket on Which Country Trump Could Attack Next

Prediction market activity has surged on Polymarket following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Traders placed over $10.5 million on the likelihood of an invasion of Venezuela in 2026, with the majority of bets tied to a January 31 deadline according to reports. The capture of Maduro triggered a windfall for an anonymous trader who bet $30,000, earning a profit of $436,759.61 as reported.

However, Polymarket has sparked controversy by ruling that the capture of Maduro does not qualify as an invasion under its definition of events. The company clarified that "US military operations intended to establish control" are required for a bet to be considered successful according to the company's explanation. This ruling has led to frustration among traders who argue that the platform arbitrarily redefines event outcomes.

The U.S. military's capture of Maduro has prompted speculation about which other countries might be next in line for similar action. President Donald Trump has publicly threatened several nations, including Colombia, Cuba, Mexico, and Iran. His administration has also reiterated a longstanding desire to acquire Greenland, citing national security concerns.

Why Did This Happen?

The recent surge in prediction market activity reflects broader geopolitical uncertainty and investor interest in forecasting Trump's next moves. Polymarket has become a focal point for this activity, despite concerns over its lack of regulatory oversight and transparency.

Some traders suspect that the anonymous bettor who won over $400,000 had access to insider information. Legal experts have raised concerns about the integrity of unregulated prediction markets, where odds of losing money are high and insider trading is not adequately addressed.

How Did Markets React?

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the Trump administration's moves on Venezuela and other countries. The administration has demanded that Venezuela cut ties with China, Russia, and Iran, signaling a broader geopolitical realignment. This shift has implications for global trade and diplomatic relations.

The situation in Venezuela has also drawn attention from U.S. lawmakers. Congressman Ritchie Torres has introduced a bill that would bar government officials from trading on prediction markets if they possess nonpublic information. The bill aims to address concerns about insider trading.

As of now, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has limited oversight of prediction markets, raising questions about the regulatory framework. Market participants and regulators alike are watching to see how this sector evolves in response to recent events.