Bernstein Predicts 67% CAGR for AI Inference Market by 2030, Apple and Dell to Benefit

Bernstein has outlined a vision for the technology landscape by 2030, highlighting the dominance of AI inference systems in a trillion-dollar market. The firm has identified several key areas and companies that are poised to benefit from this trend, including Apple, AI servers, and storage solutions.

Bernstein's analysis underscores the significant growth potential in AI infrastructure, particularly in AI inference systems. These systems are expected to drive a massive increase in demand for AI computing power, benefiting companies that specialize in IT hardware and consumer electronics. The firm predicts that the AI inference market could reach a scale of approximately 1.3 trillion dollars by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of around 67% between 2025 and 2030.

Apple is identified as one of the best entry points for the AI inference revolution. With a vast ecosystem of active devices, including iPhones and iPads, Apple's integration of AI capabilities at the system level will allow developers to reach a massive user base. The company's AI application tool, Apple Intelligence, is designed to prioritize local processing, with the option to use Private Cloud Compute for more extensive models, ensuring data security and minimal data residency. This makes Apple's solutions particularly attractive for sensitive applications involving personal and enterprise data.

Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) are also expected to benefit significantly from the growing demand for AI servers. The increased outshipment of AI servers is anticipated to drive substantial profits and free cash flow growth for these companies. However, Bernstein expresses caution regarding Super Micro Computer, citing execution challenges and valuation concerns.

Dell, in particular, has a strong partnership with NVIDIA, leveraging the latest NVIDIA GPUs and CUDA acceleration tools to provide robust AI training and inference capabilities for global enterprises. This collaboration ensures optimal integration and performance for AI workloads, positioning Dell as a key player in the AI infrastructure market.

In the storage sector, Bernstein highlights Seagate Technology and SanDisk as companies that stand to gain the most from the surge in data storage demand driven by AI. The increasing need for AI inference capabilities is expected to fuel long-term growth in storage solutions, including HBM storage systems, server-level DDR5, and enterprise-level SSDs. Bernstein predicts that data center storage will grow at a compound annual growth rate of approximately 23% through 2030, benefiting both HDD and NAND manufacturers.

In the HDD sector, the relatively stable oligopolistic structure is expected to result in steady profit and free cash flow growth, with Seagate, which leads in HAMR technology, being particularly well-positioned. In the NAND sector, SanDisk is expected to see significant profit growth as the "new storage paradigm" becomes more prevalent.

Bernstein also comments on the potential for a quantum computing revolution, suggesting that IBM could emerge as a leader in this field. Despite being seen as a traditional player, IBM's substantial investments in quantum computing innovation are beginning to yield returns, potentially driving the company's performance back to a growth trajectory.