Bernstein Elevates Figure (FIGR) to Top Pick for 2026 with $72 Price Target

Bernstein has raised its price target for Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) to $72 from $54 and designated the stock as its 2026 'best idea,' with a potential upside of 38% from its recent closing price of $52.23 according to Bernstein's analysis. The firm reiterates its 'outperform' rating, emphasizing Figure's role in the tokenized credit market and its blockchain-based infrastructure as reported. The move aligns with Bernstein's broader thesis on a tokenization 'supercycle' in 2026, where digital assets and tokenized equities are expected to drive a new wave of growth according to market analysis.

Figure, founded by former SoFi co-founder Mike Cagney, is one of the largest non-bank home equity line of credit (HELOC) originators in the U.S. It went public in September 2025 and has since expanded into a blockchain-based capital marketplace as detailed. Bernstein argues that the company is well-positioned amid evolving regulatory frameworks, particularly with the proposed Clarity Act, which aims to define a clearer regulatory environment for crypto markets according to Bernstein's report.

The firm notes that Figure's performance has exceeded expectations, driven by its partner-led marketplace model and growth in new lending categories. In the fourth quarter, the company reported total consumer loan marketplace volume of $2.7 billion, with its tokenized credit platform, Figure Connect, accounting for 46% of processed credit volumes according to Q4 results.

Why Did This Happen?

Bernstein attributes the upgrade to Figure's faster-than-expected growth across its tokenized credit platform and improving operating leverage as noted. The firm sees Figure's use of blockchain technology as a key differentiator, replacing traditional banking systems with more efficient, transparent processes according to analysis. This shift aligns with broader industry trends toward tokenized assets, which are seen as a way to increase liquidity and transparency in traditional financial markets according to Morningstar.

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, highlight that Figure's results have outpaced already optimistic expectations. This growth is supported by its partner-led model, which allows for rapid scaling and access to new lending markets as reported. The expansion into categories such as debt-service coverage ratio (DSCR) loans, small business loans, and crypto-backed loans further strengthens Figure's growth potential according to Bernstein's assessment.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Bernstein expects Figure to continue scaling its stablecoin and funding products alongside its core marketplace. The firm also notes the company's plan to launch a tokenized equity platform by tokenizing its own shares, which could provide long-term optionality according to Bernstein. While this initiative is not expected to be a near-term revenue driver, it could enhance Figure's appeal to investors seeking exposure to the tokenized equities market as analyzed.

The analysts also highlight Figure's strategic moves into new credit products, including small business and crypto-backed loans. These segments are seen as underpenetrated markets with significant growth potential according to market research. By expanding its product offerings, Figure can diversify its revenue streams and reduce its dependence on the HELOC market as noted.

Bernstein's broader thesis on tokenization includes a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin in 2026 and a $200,000 target for 2027. The firm sees crypto-linked equities like Robinhood (HOOD), Coinbase (COIN), and Figure (FIGR) as key beneficiaries of this trend according to Bernstein's analysis. Despite cutting its price targets for some names like Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN), Bernstein remains bullish on the tokenization narrative, which it views as a structural shift in the financial industry as reported.

What Risks Remain for Figure?

While Bernstein's analysis is optimistic, the firm also acknowledges potential risks to Figure's long-term growth. These include regulatory uncertainty, especially as the Clarity Act progresses through the legislative process. Additionally, competition in the tokenized credit and lending space is expected to intensify as more firms enter the market according to industry analysis.

The analysts also note that Figure's tokenized equity platform could face challenges in terms of adoption and liquidity. While the concept is innovative, the success of such an offering depends on market demand and the ability to attract both retail and institutional investors as discussed.

Bernstein's report also highlights the importance of Figure's capital markets strategy. The firm's recent securitization, which received a AAA rating from S&P and Moody's, is seen as a key milestone for blockchain-based finance. This achievement could open the door for more investors to participate in tokenized asset markets according to company announcement.

What's Next for the Tokenization Market?

Bernstein expects the tokenization 'supercycle' to drive the next phase of growth in the crypto and financial markets according to market forecast. The firm projects that stablecoins alone could see a 56% year-over-year increase in supply, reaching $420 billion by 2026 as projected. This growth is supported by cross-border payments, consumer remittances, and stablecoin-based neobanks, which are expected to gain traction as more businesses adopt digital currencies according to industry reports.

The analysts also see potential for tokenized equities to play a larger role in the financial ecosystem. They note that the tokenized equities market has grown from $16 million at the start of 2025 to $800 million in early 2026, with high velocity indicating active use for financial strategies rather than passive holding according to market analysis.

Conclusion

Bernstein's upgraded rating for Figure underscores the firm's confidence in the company's ability to navigate the evolving financial and regulatory landscape. The firm's broader thesis on tokenization supports the view that blockchain-based platforms will play a critical role in shaping the future of finance as stated. As the market continues to evolve, investors are advised to monitor both regulatory developments and competitive dynamics to assess the long-term potential of Figure and other tokenization-focused firms according to industry outlook.