Berachain/Bitcoin Market Overview (2025-10-05)

• Price declined from a 15-minute high of $2.343e-05 to a low of $2.275e-05, closing near key support at $2.29e-05.
• Momentum weakened with RSI showing oversold conditions and a bearish MACD crossover.
• Volatility expanded with a Bollinger Band contraction followed by a sharp price drop below the 20-period moving average.
• Volume surged during the sharp decline but faded as the pair consolidated near the lower band.
• A bullish reversal candle appeared near $2.29e-05, suggesting short-term support may hold.

The Berachain/Bitcoin (BERABTC) pair opened at $2.342e-05 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $2.343e-05 before falling to a 24-hour low of $2.275e-05. It closed at $2.29e-05 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total traded volume reached 25,102.596 units with a notional turnover of approximately $6.83 (assuming $1 = 1 BTC).

On the 15-minute chart, the price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $2.32e-05 and a long lower shadow at $2.29e-05, hinting at potential support. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bearish bias. Meanwhile, the daily chart shows the pair is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, indicating a deeper bearish trend.

Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish tone. The RSI dropped to oversold territory near 28, suggesting the decline may have oversold, but a rebound is not guaranteed. The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram remains negative. Bollinger Bands show a contraction earlier in the session followed by a sharp price drop, suggesting heightened volatility and potential for continued weakness. Price is now resting near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a high volatility period with bearish pressure.

Volume spiked during the key selloff around 02:45 ET, but faded as the pair stabilized. Notional turnover also surged during the decline, confirming price action. However, recent volume has dried up as the price consolidated near support, which may indicate short-term exhaustion. A divergence between price and volume is not currently visible, but the lack of follow-through buying after the initial drop raises questions about conviction. A break below $2.29e-05 could trigger further bearish movement, while a rebound above $2.32e-05 might offer a temporary reversal.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.343e-05 to $2.275e-05 show the 38.2% level at $2.318e-05 and the 61.8% at $2.295e-05. The pair has tested and found support near the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential bounce. However, the broader daily Fibonacci levels indicate a larger bearish trend, with key psychological support at $2.25e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern appears and the RSI enters oversold territory, with a stop-loss placed above the 20-period moving average. Given the recent behavior of BERABTC, this strategy would have been triggered around $2.32e-05 with a target near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2.295e-05. If the price holds above $2.29e-05, a reversal may present a bullish entry point with a stop below $2.275e-05. This strategy would aim to capitalize on short-term volatility while maintaining a risk-reward profile of 1:1.5.