BENQI/Tether (QIUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-25

• Price action showed a bearish reversal from intraday highs near 0.00904 to a 24-hour low of 0.00825.
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions by late ET with RSI dipping below 30.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-day before expanding, signaling increased volatility.
• Volume surged over 15 million during the 04:30 ET session, coinciding with the largest price drop.
• A bullish 15-minute engulfing pattern emerged near 0.00825, hinting at short-term stabilization.

Market Summary

BENQI/Tether (QIUSDT) opened at 0.00896 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00834 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday high of 0.00904 and a low of 0.00821. Total volume across the 24-hour period amounted to approximately 78.6 million QIUSDT, with a notional turnover of around $7.52 million.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a bearish breakdown from a prior consolidation range in the early ET hours. A key resistance level around 0.00904 failed to hold, triggering a sharp decline. The 0.00884 level acted as a temporary support during the mid-ET pullback, but a later breakdown of 0.00878 led to a retest of the 0.00821 intraday low. Notable candlestick patterns included a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern during the 04:30 ET session and a bullish engulfing pattern at the 0.00825 level during the final ET hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish bias. Daily MA analysis showed the price closing below the 200-day MA, indicating a broader downtrend. The 50-day MA at 0.00869 served as a key psychological level, but the price failed to retrace above it during the 24-hour window.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative by mid-ET and stayed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The RSI indicator, which had been in overbought territory early in the session, dipped below the 30 level by 04:30 ET, signaling oversold conditions. However, this did not trigger a significant rebound, indicating weak follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively low during the early part of the session, with Bollinger Bands constricted between 0.00890 and 0.00904. As the bearish move intensified, the bands expanded, with the price dropping below the lower band at 0.00821. This expansion suggests a potential continuation of the current trend unless a strong reversal occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed across the 24-hour window, with a sharp spike during the 04:30 ET session (over 15 million QIUSDT traded). This coincided with the price breaking through the 0.00834 level. Despite the high volume, the notional turnover did not surge in lockstep, suggesting potential slippage or low-liquidity conditions at lower price levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.00821–0.00904 swing, the 0.00856 level (38.2%) held as a minor resistance. The 0.00839 (50%) level was tested twice but failed to hold, indicating bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 0.00858 level (38.2% retracement from a prior high) appears relevant for potential short-term bounce scenarios.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes a long entry on a bullish engulfing candle that appears near a key Fibonacci retracement level, provided the 20-period MA is above the 50-period MA, and RSI is below 30. The stop loss is placed below the low of the engulfing candle, and the target is a 1.5x risk reward based on the body size of the engulfing pattern. This strategy aligns with the observed 15-minute bullish engulfing candle near 0.00825, which coincided with the 38.2% retracement level and a low RSI reading. If validated historically, this could suggest a potential short-term reversal, though confirmation is needed in the next 24 hours.