Benner Cycle Faces Skepticism Amid Market Volatility

In the current unstable global financial landscape, many retail investors are turning to predictive tools to guide their investment strategies. One such tool that has garnered significant attention is the Benner Cycle, an economic forecasting chart that is over 150 years old. This chart has been credited with accurately predicting major financial crises since the mid-1920s, but recent economic developments are challenging this belief.

The Benner Cycle was developed by Samuel Benner, who suffered heavy losses during the 1873 crisis. In response, he began studying economic patterns and published a book in 1875 titled Business Prophecies of the Future Ups and Downs in Prices, introducing the Benner Cycle. Unlike complex mathematical models from quantitative finance, Benner based his cycle on the price cycles of agricultural goods, which he observed through his own experience as a farmer. He believed that solar cycles significantly impacted crop yields, which in turn influenced agricultural prices, leading to his market prophecy.

The Benner chart is divided into three key lines: Line A marks years of panic, Line B indicates boom years ideal for selling stocks and assets, and Line C highlights recession years suitable for accumulation and buying. Benner mapped his forecast to 2059, despite the dramatic changes in modern agriculture over the nearly 200 years since his observations. According to Wealth Management Canada, the cycle has closely aligned with major financial events, such as the Great Depression of 1929, with only minor deviations of a few years. Investor Panos noted that the Benner Cycle successfully forecasted several key events, including the Great Depression, World War II, the Dot-Com bubble, and the COVID-19 crash. The chart suggests that 2023 was a prime year to buy, and 2026 will mark the market’s next major peak.

Retail investors in the crypto market widely share the Benner Cycle, using it to support bullish scenarios for 2025–2026. Investor mikewho.eth predicted that the Benner Cycle suggests a market peak around 2025, followed by a correction or recession in subsequent years. This could intensify the speculative hype in Crypto AI and emerging tech in 2024–2025 before a downturn. However, belief in the Benner Cycle is under pressure due to recent economic developments. On April 2, President Trump announced a controversial new tariff plan, causing global markets to react negatively and opening the week deep in the red. The market movements on April 7 were so severe that some dubbed it “Black Monday” over the infamous stock crash in 1987. On April 7, the total crypto market cap dropped from $2.64 trillion to $2.32 trillion, although a recovery has started, investor sentiment remains deeply fearful.

In addition, JPMorgan recently increased its probability of a global recession in 2025 to 60%, triggered by the economic shock caused by the newly announced tariffs on Liberation Day. Goldman Sachs also raised its recession forecast to 45% over the next 12 months—the highest level since the post-pandemic era of inflation and rate hikes. Veteran trader Peter Brandt criticized the Benner chart, stating that he does not trust it and finds it more distracting than helpful for his trading decisions. Despite concerns about a recession and market behavior contradicting the Benner Cycle’s bullish outlook, some investors still believe in Samuel Benner’s prophecy. Investor Crynet said, “Market top in 2026. That gives us one more year if history decides to repeat itself. Sounds wild? Sure. But remember: markets are more than just numbers; they’re all about mood, memory, and momentum. And sometimes those quirky old charts work—not because they’re magical, but because enough folks believe they do!”

According to Google Trends, search interest in the Benner Cycle peaked over the past month, reflecting a growing demand among retail investors for optimistic narratives, especially amid fears of heightened economic and political instability. Despite the challenges and criticisms, the Benner Cycle continues to be a topic of interest and debate among investors, highlighting the enduring fascination with historical economic patterns and their potential to predict future market movements.