Benjamin Cowen Says Crypto Rallies Are Now Tactical as Macro Liquidity Stays Tight

CME Group has announced the launch of futures contracts for Cardano (ADA), Chainlink (LINK), and Stellar (XLM) in February 2026, expanding its offerings beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move reflects growing institutional and regulatory acceptance of the broader crypto market. The contracts will feature both standard and micro sizes, providing access for a wider range of market participants.

The CME expansion builds on the exchange's record-breaking 2025 performance, with average daily crypto futures and options volume reaching 278,300 contracts. Open interest stood at 313,900 contracts, indicating strong liquidity and positioning. Micro-sized contracts, in particular, have driven much of the activity, with Micro Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts seeing significant trading volumes.

ProShares has already filed for six new ETFs tied to these new futures, including leveraged versions. These filings suggest that the structured product industry is preparing for broader retail participation in the new asset classes. The timing indicates a strategic sequence, with futures establishing liquidity before ETFs launch.

The Clarity Act, a proposed framework for U.S. crypto regulation, has stalled amid disagreements between lawmakers and industry players. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has pulled support due to concerns over stablecoin yield restrictions and DeFi provisions. The bill's uncertain future has weighed on market sentiment, with crypto prices fluctuating in response.

Bitcoin and other major coins saw price gains earlier this week, with Bitcoin surpassing $95,000. Spot ETF inflows also resumed, adding around $1.7 billion in the past four days. However, these gains were partially reversed as the Clarity Act delay raised questions about regulatory clarity and market stability.

Analysts are watching how the new CME futures perform over the coming months. Success would require strong open interest, tight spreads, and active participation from both institutional and retail traders. If these contracts fail to gain traction, the broader adoption of crypto derivatives may be delayed.

Investors are also monitoring how the stalled Clarity Act affects market structure and product development. The lack of regulatory certainty increases the risk of fragmentation and inconsistent rules across jurisdictions. For now, the market remains in a period of adjustment, with tactical trading opportunities emerging as macro liquidity remains constrained.

Why Did CME Expand Its Offerings?

CME's decision to launch ADA, LINK, and XLM futures reflects a broader recognition that the crypto market has moved beyond its early stages. The exchange cited a need to provide institutional-grade tools for hedging and speculative positioning in a diversified set of digital assets. By introducing these contracts, CME aims to consolidate volume from offshore perpetual markets into a U.S.-regulated environment.

The move also aligns with a strategic timeline. CME's micro-sized contracts have already demonstrated strong demand, with volume peaking at 794,903 contracts on Nov. 21, 2025. This suggests that the exchange has built a solid foundation for expanding into new assets without risking liquidity or market stability.

How Are the New Contracts Structured?

The new futures contracts include both standard and micro sizes. For Cardano, the sizes are 100,000 ADA and 10,000 ADA. Chainlink contracts offer 5,000 LINK and 250 LINK, while Stellar contracts feature 250,000 XLM and 12,500 XLM according to CME's announcement. These options cater to both institutional and retail traders, allowing for more precise exposure to the underlying assets.

CME's contracts are cash-settled based on CME CF reference rates, a key factor in institutional adoption. These rates ensure transparency and reliability in settlement, which is essential for clearing members and large market participants. The infrastructure already existed for some of these assets, such as Stellar, which had been part of CME's benchmark universe since 2022.

What Are Analysts Watching?

Analysts are closely observing whether the new contracts will become genuine tradable markets with sustained open interest and tight spreads. A "soft adoption" scenario, capturing just 0.1% of the current $12 billion daily notional volume, would be enough to sustain the listings but indicate limited institutional integration. A more robust adoption of 0.5% would suggest steady hedging and market-making participation.

Market participants are also watching the broader regulatory environment. The stalled Clarity Act has created uncertainty around how stablecoins and DeFi will be treated. Coinbase has raised concerns about provisions that would restrict yield-bearing stablecoins and decentralized finance. These issues remain central to the industry's push for clarity and consistency in U.S. crypto policy.

Bitcoin's recent price action also offers insight into market sentiment. The coin has broken out of an ascending triangle pattern and is testing $107,000 as a potential target. This technical and fundamental alignment suggests continued upside potential, but investors remain cautious as regulatory news continues to influence short-term volatility.

Institutional players are also adjusting to macro conditions. Global liquidity expansion and a shift in Bitcoin's correlation with gold suggest that the asset is becoming less of a commodity and more of a monetary asset. These developments reinforce the argument that Bitcoin is evolving into a strategic asset class with its own drivers.

What's Next for the Market?

CME's move is part of a broader trend toward institutional integration. The exchange plans to make crypto futures and options available 24/7 in early 2026, pending regulatory approval. This would bring the market in line with traditional derivatives markets and further normalize crypto as an asset class.

At the same time, ProShares' ETF filings highlight the growing appeal of crypto for retail investors. Leveraged versions of the new ETFs suggest that structured products are preparing for increased demand, with CME's futures providing the necessary underlying liquidity. This could signal a new wave of crypto ETFs in the coming months.

The stalled Clarity Act, however, remains a wildcard. While lawmakers and industry players continue to negotiate, the absence of a clear regulatory framework could delay product launches and adoption. The industry's preference for a "no bill rather than a bad bill" stance reflects the high stakes involved.

For now, the market is navigating a period of transition. CME's new offerings represent a key step in the maturation of the crypto market, but regulatory and macroeconomic factors will continue to shape the path forward. Investors remain focused on liquidity, volatility, and the long-term structural changes that are reshaping the industry.