Bending Spoons: Airtable Deal Is Cheap, But The Stock Isn't

Hold

Bending Spoons (NASDAQ: BSP) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Airtable in an all-cash deal valuing the connected-workflow platform at $1.285 billion in enterprise value - or $2.25 billion in equity value after adding back Airtable's net cash. The deal, announced Tuesday, is the Milan-based holding company's first acquisition since it listed on the Nasdaq on July 1.

On its face, the Airtable purchase fits Bending Spoons' playbook to a T: a recognizable software brand that peaked on a valuation far above what it now commands. Airtable raised its Series F at an $11.7 billion valuation in December 2021, then faded to roughly $4 billion on secondary markets by early 2026. Bending Spoons is buying it for less than one-third of that secondary low.

The question isn't whether the asset is cheap. The question is whether Bending Spoons' stock - which already trades at a premium multiple and carries a highly leveraged balance sheet - can absorb another major acquisition without stretching credibility. The rating is Hold.

The deal terms and the asset

Airtable generated an estimated $480 million in annual recurring revenue as of June 2026, with growth exceeding 20% year-over-year, according to Bending Spoons CEO Luca Ferrari. The platform serves more than 500,000 organizations, including 80% of the Fortune 100. Airtable reports roughly 90% gross margins and has been investing in an AI-native refounding that includes a new multi-agent product called Superagent and deeper ChatGPT integration.

At $1.285 billion enterprise value, the deal prices Airtable at approximately 2.7 times its estimated ARR. That is a steep discount even relative to how public SaaS names at similar growth rates have been valued. Monday.com, Asana, and Smartsheet - competitors in adjacent workflow and collaboration software - all trade at enterprise multiples well above 2.7x revenue. Airtable's revenue of roughly $480 million (estimated ARR from third-party sources; the company does not officially disclose the figure) makes it the largest business Bending Spoons has acquired to date by a wide margin.

Bending Spoons has committed to a long-hold strategy. CEO Ferrari said the company plans to "expand what can be done across the full spectrum of work and make Airtable even more valuable to customers at every scale." The deal is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals and is expected to close later this year.

Bending Spoons' operating engine

To understand the risk in this deal, you have to look at the buyer, not just the target.

Bending Spoons reported $1.31 billion in 2025 revenue. Pro forma revenue for 2025, including recently acquired businesses, was approximately $2.6 billion. The portfolio spans AOL, Eventbrite, Evernote, Vimeo, Remini, WeTransfer, Meetup, StreamYard, Issuu, Brightcove, and others. As of March 2026, the group served over 500 million monthly active users and more than 9 million monthly paying customers.

The operating profile is impressive on paper. Gross margin sits at 66.7%, operating margin at 24.4%, and EBITDA margin at 36.3%. Revenue per full-time employee (the company calls them "Spooners") nearly doubled from $1.12 million in 2023 to $2.57 million in 2025, a sign of intense operational leverage. Guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA - earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization - is approximately $1.4 billion.

But the balance sheet tells a more cautious story.

The leverage problem

Bending Spoons carries $5.92 billion in total debt against total equity of $1.06 billion. That is a debt-to-equity ratio of roughly 410%. Cash on hand is $741 million, leaving net debt of $3.6 billion. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months stands at $341 million.

The Airtable deal is all-cash, but the math is constraining. At $1.285 billion enterprise value, the acquisition consumes well over Bending Spoons' entire cash balance. The company will need to fund the shortfall from operating cash flow over time or through additional debt or equity. Either path adds strain.

This is the first acquisition since the July 1 IPO, which priced at $29 per share, above the marketed range of $26–$28, raising $1.68 billion. The IPO itself already added to the company's capital structure. Now the balance sheet has to support a $1.3 billion-plus deployment. Revenue per Spooner is impressive, but revenue per dollar of debt is the metric that matters here. At current run rates, free cash flow of roughly $340 million per year covers about 12% of total debt annually. That is manageable but not fast.

Valuation: premium pricing for a roll-up story

BSP trades at $36.22, up 2.9% today on the Airtable news and up nearly 25% year-to-date since the IPO. The market capitalization stands at $23.0 billion.

The valuation multiple is where the Hold rating crystallizes. BSP trades at approximately 44.4x EV/EBITDA and 13.95x trailing revenue. For comparison, Workday (NASDAQ: WDAY), a public enterprise software company with a more traditional SaaS profile, trades at 28.4x EV/EBITDA and 4.14x revenue. The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD), another software name in the Nasdaq ecosystem, trades at 9.9x EV/EBITDA and 2.9x revenue.

Bending Spoons commands a premium of roughly 56% over Workday on an EV/EBITDA basis. That premium is justified only if the acquisition-and-transform model delivers durable EBITDA compounding and the next round of purchases proves accretive on a rolling basis. If integration stumbles, margin pressure emerges, or the pace of acquisitions slows due to balance-sheet constraints, that premium is hard to defend.

The stock has already priced in significant optimism. It briefly exceeded $25 billion in market cap on its IPO debut, trading nearly 40% above the offering price. It has since drifted back toward $23 billion. The stock quality is not driven by a dip; it is driven by a premium narrative that needs continuous execution to sustain.

What would change the call

An upgrade to Buy would require one of the following: - BSP demonstrates that the Airtable integration is accretive within 12 months, with the company's adjusted EBITDA growing faster than the $1.4 billion 2026 guidance. - The stock trades back below 35x EV/EBITDA, giving margin of safety against execution risk and balance-sheet leverage. - BSP shows a clear path to reducing net debt below $2 billion, either through cash flow or a secondary equity raise at attractive terms.

A downgrade would follow if: - Airtable faces customer attrition post-acquisition, echoing concerns around Evernote and WeTransfer where Bending Spoons' monetization overhaul drew user backlash. - Debt service costs compress free cash flow below $250 million annually, tightening the company's acquisition runway. - BSP announces additional large acquisitions without a corresponding improvement in the leverage ratio.

The investor takeaway

The Airtable acquisition is a competent buy at a discounted price. Bending Spoons is purchasing a $480 million ARR business at 2.7x revenue, a multiple that reflects the full erosion of Airtable's $11.7 billion peak valuation. The asset is solid: 90% gross margins, Fortune 100 penetration, and an AI product refresh that is already underway.

But the stock at $23 billion in market cap and 44x EV/EBITDA already assumes these deals work. The balance sheet - 410% debt-to-equity with $3.6 billion in net debt - means Bending Spoons has limited room for error on its next two moves. The roll-up thesis is working, but it is not cheap enough right now to justify a Buy.

I am maintaining a Hold. Wait for the stock to find better entry ground, or for the next earnings report to show that Airtable's $480 million in revenue is flowing cleanly into Bending Spoons' EBITDA engine. Until the multiple contracts or the leverage comes down, the risk/reward is tilted.

The next quarterly earnings print, Q2 2026 consensus EPS of $0.24 on an expected $683 million in quarterly revenue, will be the first real test of whether the market's premium valuation is warranted.