BELUSDT Market Overview: Volatility Picks Up as Price Tests Key Resistance

• BELUSDT traded in a tight range for most of the 24-hour period before surging past 0.2450.
• A bullish breakout above 0.2432 was confirmed by volume expansion and a higher close.
• RSI crossed into overbought territory late in the session, suggesting potential near-term resistance.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate expansion during the final 6 hours, indicating rising volatility.
• Volume increased by 480% in the 02:45–03:00 ET window, aligning with a sharp price move to 0.2434.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at $0.2381 on October 4 at 12:00 ET and traded between $0.2372 and $0.2474 over the next 24 hours, closing at $0.2461 on October 5 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,191,808.6, while notional turnover totaled approximately $293,087.41, reflecting a 480% surge in volume during the breakout phase. The pair showed a clear upward bias after a decisive break above the 0.2432 resistance level.

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bullish bias after an initial consolidation phase. A large bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 02:45 ET when the pair broke above 0.2434 with high volume and momentum. This pattern was followed by a series of higher highs and higher closes, particularly from 04:00–08:00 ET. Notably, the 0.2418–0.2432 range acted as a key psychological pivot, with the price finding support at 0.2419 on multiple occasions before surging higher. The 15-minute chart showed a strong alignment with the 20-period moving average, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

MACD showed a positive crossover on October 5 at 02:45 ET, coinciding with the breakout above 0.2434 and confirming bullish momentum. RSI crossed into overbought territory at 0.2450, indicating the potential for a short-term pullback. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the breakout phase, with the price closing near the upper band at 0.2474. This expansion suggests increased volatility and a continuation of the upward move could be supported by a close above 0.2450. On the downside, the 0.2429–0.2431 range could act as a critical support level in the near term.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the October 4 low of 0.2372 showed 0.2432 as the 61.8% level and 0.2450 as the 78.6% extension. The price has already tested both, and a close above 0.2450 could signal a shift into a new phase of momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below 0.2429 may trigger a retest of the 0.2418–0.2423 area. The 15-minute chart shows a strong alignment with the 50-period moving average, which has acted as a dynamic support line since 04:00 ET. The 50-period moving average is currently at 0.2443, slightly below the current price, indicating further upside potential.

Backtest Hypothesis: A strategy based on the 20-period moving average crossover with MACD confirmation and a stop-loss placed below the 0.2429–0.2431 support range could offer a favorable risk/reward profile. Historical data from this 24-hour period suggests that the 0.2434 level acted as a critical trigger for a bullish trend extension. A backtest would likely show positive performance when entering long positions after a 20-period MA crossover above the price and a confirmed MACD bull signal, with a tight stop just below the key support level. This approach may work well in environments where volatility is increasing, as seen in the current session.