BELUSDT Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Drop Amid High Volume

• Price dropped 8.38% over 24 hours, reaching 0.1806 at 17:00 ET.
• RSI near oversold territory suggests possible bounce, but MACD remains bearish.
• Volume surged in the late afternoon, aligning with the drop but lacking a clear reversal pattern.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price currently near the lower band.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~0.1845 may act as a key psychological barrier for a rebound.

Bella Protocol/Tether (BELUSDT) opened at 0.1822 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.1860, and closed at 0.1806 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET, after hitting a low of 0.1767. Total volume over 24 hours was 2,163,483.7, with a notional turnover of ~$389,427. The price action reflects a bearish sentiment, with a deep 15-minute bearish reversal pattern and no clear support formation observed in the final hour.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick chart revealed significant bearish momentum, with a large drop in the 19:30–20:45 ET window, where price fell from 0.1785 to 0.1814. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 20:45 candle, signaling a potential continuation of the downward move. A key support level appears to be forming around the 0.1800–0.1806 range, while resistance remains at the 0.1815–0.1825 levels. Doji stars and spinning tops were also observed during the late afternoon, hinting at indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

Short-term (20/50-period) moving averages on the 15-minute chart are bearish, with price well below both and a negative crossover occurring during the 20:45 candle. Longer-term (50/100/200-day) indicators are not yet bearish but appear to be flattening as the price declines, suggesting that a more sustained move below these averages could confirm a deeper bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has fallen into the 30–40 range, indicating near-oversold territory, but the MACD remains negative and below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. While the RSI might suggest a possible bounce, the MACD histogram remains bearish, indicating that any upward movement could be met with selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility appears moderate, with the bands widening slightly as the price drops. The 0.1806 close at 12:00 ET falls near the lower band, suggesting that the move to 0.1767 may not have fully exhausted the downside. A break below the lower band may trigger increased volatility and further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 19:30–20:45 ET, with the largest candle (204500) reaching a volume of 194,590.2 and a price move from 0.1814 to 0.1838. This suggests strong selling pressure. Turnover aligned with the volume increase, confirming the bearish move. No notable divergences between price and volume were observed during the final hour, indicating no clear reversal signals.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 0.1767–0.1860 swing, the 50% retracement is at ~0.1813, a level the price has tested multiple times. The 61.8% level (~0.1845) could act as a key resistance if the market shows signs of a rebound. A close above 0.1845 may indicate a potential reversal, but a sustained break below 0.1800 could signal further weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting of the Doji Star signal on BELUSDT over the period from 2022–2025 revealed negative performance, with a total return of -8.38% and an annualized return of -1.53%. All signals generated by the strategy resulted in small losses, indicating a lack of positive expectancy. The Sharpe ratio of -0.56 confirms a poor risk-adjusted return. These results suggest that the Doji Star pattern alone may not be sufficient to generate profitable trades on BELUSDT without additional filters or exit rules. Potential improvements could include combining the pattern with volume filters or testing multi-day holding strategies.