Belt and Road in Latin America: A Strategic Play in the US-China Trade War

The escalating U.S.-China trade war has turned Latin America into a critical battleground for influence, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) positioning itself as a lifeline for resource-rich nations like Brazil, Peru, and Venezuela. As U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions rise, investors are flocking to BRI-linked infrastructure and resource plays that promise outsized returns—if acted on before Washington’s regulatory backlash intensifies.

The BRI’s Latin American Playbook: Infrastructure as a Trojan Horse
China’s strategy in the region is clear: use massive infrastructure investments to secure long-term access to lithium, copper, and agricultural commodities. The $3.4 billion Chancay Port in Peru—inaugurated in 2023 and the largest in South America—epitomizes this approach. Operated by China’s COSCO Shipping, it slashes shipping times for Brazilian soy, Peruvian copper, and Venezuelan oil to Asian markets, effectively rerouting trade away from U.S.-controlled Atlantic routes.

Brazil: The Soy and Lithium Superpower
Brazil’s Ferrogrão Railway, set to begin operations in 2026, is a linchpin of the BRI’s logistics network. Stretching 931 km from Mato Grosso’s soy farms to the Amazon River, it will cut grain transport costs by 30%, directly boosting exports to China. Meanwhile, Brazil’s share of the global lithium market is rising as Chinese firms like PowerChina invest in mining partnerships. With lithium prices up 400% since 2020, Brazil’s untapped reserves—part of the “Lithium Triangle” with Argentina and Chile—are a gold mine for investors.

Data shows a steady climb from $12 billion in 2020 to $35 billion in 2025, fueled by BRI infrastructure projects.

Peru: Copper and the Pacific Pivot
Peru’s Chancay Port isn’t just a logistics hub—it’s a geopolitical chess move. By linking Brazil’s Amazon to the Pacific, it reduces reliance on U.S.-proximate Atlantic ports. Peru’s Cerro Verde copper mine, 60% owned by China Molybdenum, is another BRI cornerstone. Copper prices, buoyed by EV demand, are near decade highs, making Peru’s 10% global copper output a must-have for investors.

Venezuela: Debt, Oil, and Geopolitical Leverage
While Venezuela lacks new BRI infrastructure projects, its $60 billion debt to China effectively ties its oil reserves to Beijing. With U.S. sanctions crippling its economy, Venezuela has become a pawn in the trade war. Chinese state loans—often collateralized by future oil shipments—guarantee Beijing’s access to 300 billion barrels of reserves.

The Investment Case: Act Before the U.S. Clamps Down
The writing is on the wall: the U.S. is tightening its screws. In 2024, Washington proposed a 15% tariff on Chinese goods transiting Latin American ports, and Congress is drafting legislation to block BRI-linked loans. Investors have a narrow window to capitalize on three high-potential sectors:

1. Infrastructure Funds: Allocate to funds like the BlackRock Global Infrastructure Fund (NYSE: INFRA), which holds stakes in BRI projects like the Chancay Port.
2. Lithium and Copper Stocks: Buy into lithium miners like SQM (NYSE: SQM) (30% of global lithium production) and copper giants like Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX).
3. Brazilian Agribusiness: Invest in Amaggi (B3: AMAG3), the soy trading giant partnering with Chinese logistics firms to exploit the Ferrogrão Railway.

The Risk? Missing the Boat
The U.S. is already moving. In April 2025, the White House announced a $50 billion “Pacific Partnership” to rival BRI projects, targeting Peruvian ports and Brazilian railways. But with BRI projects already 60% complete in the region, the window to profit is closing fast.

Conclusion: The BRI’s Latin Gamble—A High-Reward, Time-Sensitive Play
China’s BRI isn’t just about infrastructure—it’s a decades-long play for control of commodities critical to global supply chains. For investors, the message is clear: act now on Brazil’s soy and lithium, Peru’s copper, and Venezuela’s oil before U.S. sanctions and competing initiatives erase the margin for profit. The stakes are too high to sit on the sidelines.

Prices have surged from $5/kg to $25/kg, driven by EV demand and BRI-backed mining projects.