E.l.f. Beauty Surges 23.6% on Strong Revenue Growth Hits 493rd Highest Trading Volume of 210M

On September 9, 2025, e.l.f. Beauty (ELF) closed with a 0.60% gain, trading on a volume of $210 million—the 493rd highest in the market. The stock has surged 23.6% over the past month, outpacing both its cosmetics sector's 2.9% gain and the broader market's 1.9% rise. Recent analyst revisions indicate mixed signals: while fourth-quarter earnings estimates have declined 5.3% in 30 days, fiscal year 2025 projections rose 2.3%, and 2026 forecasts climbed 1.5%. Revenue expectations remain robust, with current-quarter sales projected at $367.55 million (+22.1% YoY) and $1.95 billion expected for fiscal 2026 (+18.1% YoY).

Analysts highlight diverging fundamentals. While the company has exceeded revenue estimates in all four reported quarters and topped EPS forecasts three times in the same period, its Zacks Rank #3 ("Hold") rating suggests neutral near-term momentum. Valuation metrics paint a bearish picture, with the stock receiving a "F" grade in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it trades at a premium to peers. Earnings revisions remain critical, as downward adjustments in near-term estimates contrast with upward revisions for longer-term projections.

To run this back-test precisely we need to pin down a few practical details: 1. Universe • Do we look at all U.S. listed common stocks (NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX), or a narrower universe such as the Russell 3000 constituents? 2. Trade timing convention • Rank the stocks by the current day’s total volume at the close, buy them at that same close and liquidate at the next day’s close (standard “hold 1 trading day” test)? • Or rank at the close, buy next day’s open, exit next day’s close? 3. Transaction assumptions • Ignore trading costs/slippage, or apply a per-trade cost estimate (e.g., 5 bp per leg)? 4. Weighting • Equal-weight the 500 stocks each day (default), or weight by dollar volume / market-cap? Once these items are set I can trigger the data pulls and back-test the strategy from 2022-01-03 (first trading day of 2022) through today. Please let me know your preference so I can proceed.