Bears Gain Ground as Whales Accumulate PEPE Amid Downtrend

The meme coin market continues to face intense pressure as Pepe (PEPE) struggles to hold above critical support levels, with technical indicators and whale activity suggesting a potential 18% decline. Despite growing accumulation by large investors, the token's price dynamics remain fragile, reflecting broader bearish sentiment across the memecoin sector.

PEPE is currently trading at $0.0000042, well below its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, confirming a sustained downtrend across all timeframes. Momentum indicators such as the MACD, ADX, RSI, and Stochastic RSI all reinforce the bearish bias, with RSI at 28 and Stochastic RSI at zero signaling an oversold but seller-dominated market. Analysts at Traders Union warn that the absence of major technical support below the current level heightens the risk of a breakdown toward $0.0000040, with an 80% probability of further declines. A failure to reclaim $0.0000046 would likely trigger a sharper drop, as sellers maintain control over price action.

Whale activity adds complexity to the narrative. On November 6, a single whale moved 2 trillion PEPE tokens ($12.3 million) off Binance, a bullish accumulation signal amid broader market weakness. Long-term holders now control 65% of the supply, up from 58% in October, suggesting conviction in the token's long-term potential. However, bears are gaining traction, with short-sellers like the "Anti-CZ Whale" netting $21 million in October–November, exacerbating downward pressure.

The broader memecoin sector is equally vulnerable. PEPE has fallen 19.35% in the past week, outpacing declines in peers like FLOKI (-14%) and BONK (-11%). Technical patterns, including a confirmed head-and-shoulders formation, suggest a potential drop to $0.00000185 if the neckline at $0.0000041 fails. Meanwhile, regulatory developments in the UK and Japan -aimed at easing crypto restrictions- offer a faint glimmer of hope, with analysts projecting a 15–20% liquidity boost for Ethereum-based tokens by Q1 2026.

Market observers remain cautious. A Traders Union analyst emphasized that "base case is ongoing consolidation or a further drop-there is no reason for optimism unless buyers reclaim $0.0000046". CoinMarketCap analysts note that while regulatory tailwinds could catalyze a rebound if Bitcoin surges past $105,000, PEPE's utility vacuum and high volatility-driven by social media virality rather than fundamentals-make it prone to sharp corrections.

Price projections remain polarized. Bullish forecasts target $0.000028 by year-end or $0.0000147 by 2026, while bears predict a floor of $0.000002 or $0.000001 by 2029. In the short term, Changelly's November average of $0.00000404 suggests a narrow trading range, but traders are advised to reduce exposure below $0.0000050.

As PEPE navigates this volatile landscape, the interplay between whale accumulation and bearish momentum will be pivotal. While regulatory clarity and Bitcoin's performance could provide lifelines, the token's survival hinges on its ability to retain social relevance amid a deepening bear market.