Bearish Bias Validates as Ondo/Turkish Lira Collapses Below Key Support

Summary
• Price action formed a bearish engulfing pattern at the 24-hour peak near 11.71 TRY.
• RSI hit overbought territory but failed to confirm sustained momentum above 11.43 TRY.
• Volatility expanded after 02:30 ET with a sharp drop to 10.87 TRY, triggering key support.
• Bollinger Bands tightened ahead of the breakdown, signaling higher probability of a directional move.
• Volume surged during the selloff, validating the short-term bearish bias.

Market Overview

Ondo/Turkish Lira (ONDOTRY) opened at 11.51 TRY, peaked at 11.74 TRY, and closed at 10.89 TRY as of 12:00 ET on 2026-02-07. Total 24-hour volume was 770,090.65 TRY, with notional turnover amounting to 8.34 million TRY.

Structure and Formations

Price tested key resistance at 11.71 TRY and formed a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential reversal. A breakdown below 11.35 TRY led to a low of 10.87 TRY, where a prior support level was retested and held. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at 10.87 TRY as buyers reentered, but momentum remained weak.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below key support levels, confirming bearish momentum. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) show a flat trend with no strong directional bias, suggesting a possible consolidation or breakout phase.

Momentum and Volatility

Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit overbought conditions (75) near 11.71 TRY, but failed to sustain above 11.43 TRY, signaling potential exhaustion. MACD turned negative mid-session, confirming the bearish shift. Bollinger Bands constricted before the 10.87 TRY breakdown, indicating higher probability of a directional move.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown to 10.87 TRY, with a 5-minute candle at that level printing 75,606.56 TRY in turnover. Turnover and price action were aligned during the selloff, validating the move. However, volume dipped below 10,000 TRY after the 10.87 TRY retest, suggesting cautious sentiment ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 11.35 TRY acted as a key resistance. A breakdown below this level led to a test of the 38.2% retracement at 10.87 TRY, where buyers reentered. The 50% retracement level at 11.11 TRY may act as a pivot point for the next 24 hours.

Ondo/Turkish Lira appears to be entering a consolidation phase after the 10.87 TRY support test. A retest of 11.11 TRY could trigger renewed buying interest if volume confirms the move. Investors should remain cautious for potential volatility if macroeconomic data or market sentiment shifts.