The Bear Market Warning: 75% of Top 100 Altcoins Underperforming Key Averages

The cryptocurrency market is currently navigating a bearish phase, with technical indicators and sentiment metrics painting a stark picture of underperformance. As of November 2025, 75% of the top 100 altcoins are trading below their 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), a critical threshold that signals prolonged bearish momentum. This underperformance, coupled with limited oversold conditions and a historically low Altcoin Season Index, underscores a market in consolidation, where risk appetite has shifted toward Bitcoin dominance. For investors, this environment demands a strategic, cautious approach to altcoin exposure, with a focus on identifying potential rebounds in oversold assets like Algorand (ALGO) and Pi (PI).

Market Structure: A Divergence from Altcoin Seasons

The Altcoin Season Index, a metric tracking the relative performance of altcoins against Bitcoin, stands at 18 as of November 2025-its lowest level in the past 90 days. This indicates that fewer than 25% of the top 100 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over the same period, a stark contrast to the explosive altcoin rallies seen during previous bull cycles. The dominance of Bitcoin has been further reinforced by the underperformance of altcoins relative to key technical indicators.

Data from Binance reveals that only 24% of altcoins on the exchange are trading above their 200-day SMA, a critical long-term trendline. This figure is far below the 50% threshold typically observed during healthy bull markets. Similarly, the percentage of altcoins above their 50-day SMA is also subdued, with 75% of the top 100 altcoins failing to cross this shorter-term benchmark. These readings suggest a market where altcoins are not participating in broader price appreciation, a hallmark of Bitcoin-dominant phases.

Sentiment Analysis: Oversold Conditions and Limited Rebound Potential

While some altcoins have dipped into oversold territory (RSI <30), the broader market remains cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, has identified several altcoins-such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), Zcash (ZEC), and Bittensor (TAO)-as undervalued candidates for rebounds. However, the percentage of top 100 altcoins in this category remains limited. For instance, Algorand (ALGO) trades at an RSI of 32.52, just below the 30 oversold threshold, while its price is 20% below its 50-day SMA ($0.2061) and 22% below its 200-day SMA ($0.2202). This bearish alignment of RSI and SMA suggests that ALGO's rebound potential is contingent on broader market sentiment rather than standalone technical strength.

Pi (PI), another altcoin in focus, is trading at $0.2018 as of mid-October 2025, well below its 50-day SMA of $0.2377 and significantly lower than its 200-day SMA according to CoinCodex. While PI's RSI has not been explicitly cited, its price action indicates a sustained downtrend, with no immediate catalysts for reversal. These examples highlight a market where oversold conditions are localized rather than systemic, limiting the scope for broad-based altcoin rebounds.

Implications for Risk Appetite and Capital Reallocation

The underperformance of altcoins has triggered a reallocation of capital toward Bitcoin, which now accounts for a larger share of total crypto market value. This shift reflects investor caution, as macroeconomic factors-such as interest rate uncertainty and macroeconomic volatility continue to weigh on risk assets. The Altcoin Season Index's low reading further reinforces this trend, as investors prioritize Bitcoin's relative stability over the higher volatility of altcoins.

However, this environment is not without opportunities. For instance, Solana (SOL) and BNB have shown technical divergences that could signal potential rebounds if Bitcoin stabilizes according to Kitco. Similarly, AI-driven tokens like Fetch.ai (FET) and NEAR have defied the broader downtrend, driven by narrative-driven momentum. These exceptions suggest that while the market is bearish, pockets of strength exist for investors willing to adopt a selective, data-driven approach.

Strategic Recommendations: Cautious Altcoin Exposure

Given the current market structure, investors should adopt a cautious stance toward altcoin investments. Key strategies include:
1. Prioritizing Oversold Assets with Strong Fundamentals: Coins like ALGO and PI, while technically bearish, could offer entry points if broader market conditions improve. However, their rebounds will depend on Bitcoin's performance and macroeconomic clarity.
2. Monitoring Bitcoin as a Leading Indicator: Bitcoin's RSI has entered oversold territory (RSI ~32), a level historically associated with potential reversals. A stabilization in Bitcoin could trigger a ripple effect, improving risk appetite for altcoins.
3. Avoiding Overexposure to Weak Altcoins: With 75% of the top 100 altcoins underperforming key averages, investors should avoid indiscriminate buying and instead focus on assets with clear use cases and strong on-chain metrics.

Conclusion

The bearish warning signaled by the underperformance of 75% of top 100 altcoins is a clear indicator of a market in consolidation. While oversold conditions exist in isolated cases, the broader sentiment remains cautious, with capital flowing toward Bitcoin as a safe haven. For investors, the path forward requires patience and selectivity, with a focus on technical and fundamental catalysts that could drive rebounds in specific assets. As the market awaits a potential shift in sentiment, a disciplined approach to altcoin exposure will be critical in navigating the current bearish landscape.