Bear Market Rally: CryptoQuant Analyzes Bitcoin's Recent Price Rebound

Bitcoin has experienced a 21% price rebound since Nov. 21, 2025, according to onchain analytics.

Despite the rebound, demand conditions remain weak. Bitcoin has not re-established itself above the 365-day moving average, which CryptoQuant views as a critical demarcation line between bull and bear market conditions.

Historical parallels have emerged, with the firm noting that the current price action resembles the 2022 bear market rally. In that period, a similar rebound failed to sustain the upward trend, followed by renewed downside.

Why Is This a Bear Market Rally?

A bear market rally refers to a temporary price rebound within a broader downtrend. In Bitcoin's case, the recent move has not reversed the bearish fundamentals, according to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant.

The 365-day moving average currently sits near $101,000. Bitcoin is approaching this level again, having risen to $97,900 in early January 2026. However, the firm cautions that, historically, similar failures to move back above this level have been followed by renewed selling pressure.

What Do Market Indicators Reveal?

CryptoQuant noted that some demand indicators have improved marginally, particularly in the U.S. The Bitcoin Coinbase Price Premium briefly turned positive for the second time since mid-December, suggesting short bursts of spot buying but not sustained demand.

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have paused net selling, but this stabilization does not equate to renewed accumulation. ETFs sold roughly 54,000 bitcoin in November 2025. Since then, selling has slowed, but not reversed.

Exchange inflows have also increased. Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has reached a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC, the largest inflow since late November 2025. Higher inflows can indicate increased selling pressure ahead.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Bitcoin's ability to reclaim and maintain the 365-day moving average will be a key focus. If bulls succeed in pushing above $101,000, it could signal a potential shift in sentiment. However, failure to do so might lead to renewed bearish momentum.

The current price trajectory is playing out similarly to the 2022 bear market, with both 2022 and 2026 diverging from the prior bear market in 2018. Analysts highlight that this pattern could suggest a repeat of the previous bearish scenario.

Market participants remain cautious. Many believe the bear market is over, and a new cycle has begun. However, fundamental and technical indicators still suggest a bearish bias.

Bitcoin's behavior relative to the U.S. equity market, particularly the S&P 500, has shown little change in the past two months. The current correlation suggests that macroeconomic uncertainty continues to affect both markets.

Investors are also watching the role of retail and institutional demand. Over the past three days, more than 47,000 retail investors have exited the market amid fear and uncertainty. The price rebound has been supported by a seven-month low in exchange-held Bitcoin volumes, indicating some level of fundamental strength.

The Value Days Destroyed indicator shows that long-term holders are not taking profits despite rising prices, which could imply a more stable base for future gains. Still, the derivatives segment has not entered a full growth phase, and the options market signals lingering risks.

Market corrections are underway as global investors react to macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin and the S&P 500 are both navigating this environment, with Bitcoin trading near $90,000 and the S&P 500 at around $6,921.

Analysts project Bitcoin could face further downward pressure if the bearish trend continues. A macro death cross pattern on the weekly chart, as pointed out by Keith Alan of Material Indicators, is a bearish signal. If this pattern persists, the price could fall back to $76,000.