BCH Down 1.9% on Nov 4 as 7-Day and 1-Month Losses Deepen

On Nov 4 2025, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) declined by 1.9% in the last 24 hours, settling at $500.2. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has dropped 8.3%, with a further 7.25% decline recorded over the last month. Despite the near-term weakness, BCH has managed to post a 14.22% increase in the past year, reflecting resilience amid volatile market conditions.

The recent pullback follows a period of mixed signals from key technical indicators. While the 200-day moving average remains above the current price, signaling a potential long-term bullish bias, the RSI has dipped into oversold territory, indicating a possible near-term rebound could be in the cards. However, the bearish divergence in the MACD histogram suggests that downward momentum is not yet exhausted. Analysts project continued price consolidation in the near term, as the market digests macroeconomic signals and sector-specific developments.

The price action in the past 30 days has seen BCH trade in a defined range between $470 and $530, with recent support levels tested multiple times without significant rejection. The lack of a strong bullish catalyst has led to a sideways trend, with traders cautiously positioned ahead of potential macroeconomic catalysts. The 14.22% annual gain stands in contrast to the recent downturn, suggesting that while the short-term outlook is bearish, longer-term investors remain confident in the asset’s fundamentals and utility.

Backtest Hypothesis

From a technical analysis standpoint, the behavior of BCH over the past year has shown limited volatility spikes that could serve as potential triggers for event-based trading strategies. An initial backtest aimed to identify every trading day since January 1, 2022, on which BCH rose by 15% or more. However, the historical dataset returned no such instances, resulting in an internal error as the backtest engine could not process an empty event list. This outcome highlights the challenges in applying event-driven models to assets with relatively muted price swings.

To address this, analysts suggest several potential refinements. One option is to lower the “jump” threshold from 15% to more achievable levels, such as 10%, 8%, or even 5%. This would increase the number of qualifying events and allow the backtest to generate meaningful results. Another approach is to shift the trigger criteria to alternative indicators such as earnings announcements or significant volume surges, which may better align with the actual trading behavior of BCH.