BBVA Slips 1.5% As Technicals Show Bearish Pressure Below Key Moving Averages

Bank Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) declined 1.50% in the latest session, closing at 15.08 after trading between 14.82 and 15.16 on elevated volume of 4.36 million shares. This movement sets the context for our technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlesticks show consolidation near the 15.00 psychological support. The 2025-06-13 bearish candle closed near its low, indicating persistent selling pressure. Key resistance is established at 15.57 (2025-05-20 peak), while support converges at 14.82 (June 13 low) and 14.69 (May 13 trough). A descending triangle pattern has formed since mid-May, with the 15.30-15.60 zone acting as stiff overhead resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. 14.20) crossed bullishly above the 200-day MA (approx. 13.40) in April, confirming a long-term uptrend. However, the price currently trades below all key moving averages (15.08 < 50D/100D/200D), reflecting near-term bearish pressure. The 200-day MA slopes upward at a 12.5% annualized rate, providing a foundational bullish bias despite recent weakness.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histograms remain negative but show diminishing bearish momentum, suggesting potential exhaustion. KDJ readings hover near oversold territory (K=25, D=30, J=15), though without decisive reversal signals. The lack of bullish divergence between price and momentum oscillators warrants caution. A convergence of oversold KDJ and MACD histogram improvement would strengthen reversal prospects.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident with bandwidth narrowing to 8% (from 15% in March), indicating coiling energy. Price consistently tests the lower band, typically a precursor to directional resolution. A close above the 20-day midline (15.20) would signal bullish breakout potential, while failure to hold the lower band (14.80) may accelerate declines.
Volume-Price Relationship
The 2025-06-10 downswing occurred on elevated volume (14.2 million shares), validating bearish sentiment. However, subsequent declines show diminishing volume, suggesting limited conviction. Breakouts above resistance levels require volume expansion (minimum 150% of 30-day average) for sustainability. Current volume profiles favor range-bound action.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (45) resides in neutral territory, recovering from oversold conditions (<30) in early June. Divergence occurred in late May when price made higher highs while RSI formed lower highs, foreshadowing the current correction. Overbought conditions (>70) last appeared in mid-May near the 15.57 peak. Current RSI momentum lacks clear directional bias.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 9.64 (2024-06-14) and high of 15.57 (2025-05-20), key Fibonacci levels emerge. The 38.2% retracement (13.18) provided support in April, while the 23.6% level (14.25) was tested in May. Current prices hover near the 14.65 (50% retracement), a critical support zone. A sustained break below 14.25 would target the 61.8% level at 12.80, though the 200-day MA near 13.40 offers intermediate support.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Significant confluence exists at 14.80-15.00, combining the 50% Fibonacci level, psychological support, and Bollinger lower band. This zone must hold to prevent breakdowns. Divergence appears in the volume profile: The 15.57 peak saw notably lower volume than the recent 15.08 decline, weakening the bull case. KDJ’s oversold signals lack confirmation from RSI and MACD, suggesting cautious interpretation.
Probabilistically, the weight of evidence leans bearish near-term given the descending pattern, volume characteristics, and moving average positioning. However, the primary uptrend remains intact below 12.80. A bullish reversal requires reclaiming 15.30 with volume expansion, which would trigger short covering toward the 15.57 resistance.