BBVA Bounces 3.84% After 9.62% Plunge as Technical Indicators Signal Volatility Ahead

Bank Bilbao Vizcaya (BBVA) recently surged 3.84% in the most recent session, marking a notable reversal from the prior day’s 9.62% decline. This sharp rebound suggests short-term volatility and potential exhaustion in the downward move, warranting a layered technical analysis to assess the sustainability of the rally and identify key levels for future action.

Candlestick Theory

The recent candlestick pattern—a long white candle following a deep bearish reversal—signals a potential short-term bottoming process. Key support levels are evident at the prior low of $23.15 (2026-02-05) and the psychological round number of $23.00, while resistance clusters form at $24.10 (2026-02-06 high) and $25.67 (2026-02-04 high). A bullish engulfing pattern is visible at the $23.2–$24.09 range, suggesting buying interest may be re-entering the market after the sharp selloff. However, the absence of a strong follow-through above $24.10 raises caution about the pattern’s conviction.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (approximately $23.50) currently acts as a dynamic support, while the 200-day MA (~$21.50) remains well below the current price, indicating a medium-term bullish bias. The 50-day crossing above the 200-day MA in late 2025 confirmed a bullish trend, which persists despite recent volatility. However, the 100-day MA (~$23.80) has begun to flatten, suggesting momentum may be moderating. A sustained close above $24.50 would reinforce the uptrend, aligning with the 50-day MA’s upward trajectory.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a narrowing bearish divergence over the past two weeks, hinting at weakening downward momentum. . The KDJ (Stochastic) indicator recently crossed into overbought territory (K at 85, D at 75), suggesting the rally may be nearing exhaustion. A bearish crossover in the KDJ could trigger a pullback toward the 50-day MA. Conversely, a bullish MACD crossover (currently neutral) would validate continued upside potential. Divergences between the MACD and price action—such as higher highs in price but lower highs in the MACD—warrant closer monitoring for early trend reversal signals.

Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the upper band near $24.50 and the lower band at $22.50. The price’s position near the upper band post-rally indicates overbought conditions, increasing the likelihood of a retest of the mid-band (~$23.50). A break below the lower band would signal renewed bearish pressure, though the recent rebound suggests this scenario is less probable unless volume confirms a breakdown.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume spiked during the 3.84% rally (5.6 million shares), aligning with the price surge and validating the move’s strength. However, volume has since retreated to average levels (~2–3 million shares), suggesting follow-through buying is tepid. Divergences between volume and price are minimal, but a lack of volume during consolidation phases (e.g., mid-January to early February) implies the rally may lack broad participation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has surged into overbought territory (70+), reflecting the recent sharp move higher. While this typically signals a potential correction, the RSI’s failure to form a bearish divergence (price highs vs. RSI lows) suggests the rally could extend further. A drop below 50 would indicate weakening momentum, with support likely at the 30 level (~$21.50), though a breakdown there would necessitate a reevaluation of the bullish case.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key retracement levels from the January 2026 high ($26.20) to the February 5 low ($23.15) include 23.6% at $24.55, 38.2% at $24.30, and 50% at $23.68. The current price near $24.09 is approaching the 38.2% level, which could serve as a confluence point with the 50-day MA. A failure to hold above $23.68 would trigger a test of the 61.8% level (~$22.90), where Fibonacci support overlaps with the 200-day MA.

Conclusion

The confluence of the 50-day MA, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and the KDJ’s overbought condition suggests a high probability of short-term consolidation around $23.50–$24.50. However, divergences in the MACD and KDJ, coupled with weak follow-through volume, imply the rally may lack durability. Traders should monitor the $23.15 support level for a potential bullish setup or the breakdown below $22.50 for a bearish scenario. A decisive close above $24.50 would validate the continuation of the medium-term uptrend, while a sustained move below $23.00 would signal a re-entry into bearish territory.