Base Token's $12B Potential Drives Coinbase's 10% Surge on JPMorgan Upgrade

Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) shares surged nearly 10% to $354.46 after Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) upgraded the cryptocurrency exchange to "overweight" from "neutral" and raised its price target to $404, a 14% increase from current levels, according to Coinotag. The move underscores growing confidence in Coinbase's ability to capitalize on new monetization opportunities, including a potential native token for its Base layer-2 blockchain and enhanced yields on USDC stablecoin.

JPMorgan analysts highlighted the Base token as a pivotal catalyst, estimating it could unlock $12 billion to $34 billion in market value for Coinbase, according to a Yahoo Finance article. The token, which has not yet been finalized, would incentivize developers and users on the Base network—a fast-growing Ethereum-compatible blockchain launched in August 2023. With over $5 billion in total value locked (TVL) and 9 million daily transactions, Base has become the largest DeFi ecosystem among Ethereum's layer-2 solutions, according to DL News.

If Coinbase issues the token and retains 40% of the supply, the bank projects it could add $4 billion to $12 billion in value to the exchange, per a Commstrader estimate. This would mirror strategies used by other blockchain projects to monetize network activity. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has described the token as "in the exploratory phase," though he has not ruled out its development, in a Yahoo Finance article.

The upgrade also cited Coinbase's improved monetization of USDC, the stablecoin it co-founded. By offering higher yields to Coinbase One subscribers—4% annualized returns compared to zero for most users—the company could generate $1 in additional earnings per share, as noted in the earlier Yahoo Finance article. This tiered approach mirrors Robinhood's Gold program and could help Coinbase capture more value from its growing stablecoin holdings.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan noted that decentralized exchanges (DEXes), once seen as a threat to centralized platforms, have lost momentum. Coinbase's integration of DEX functionality into its mobile app—allowing users to trade virtually all on-chain assets—positions it to benefit from the waning DEX boom. The bank expects Coinbase to monetize this transition via Base sequencer fees, further diversifying its revenue streams.

JPMorgan praised Coinbase's vertically integrated business model, which spans brokerage, market making, and custody services. This structure, the analysts said, provides resilience even if trading fees decline. The bank valued Coinbase at 50 times its projected 2027 earnings, incorporating $4 billion in potential value from the Base token, as previously reported by Yahoo Finance.

The upgrade follows broader regulatory scrutiny of crypto firms, but Coinbase's compliance-first approach has helped it maintain a competitive edge. Its recent acquisition of token fundraising platform Echo and strategic focus on institutional clients also signal long-term growth ambitions, according to Coinotag.

The JPMorgan report comes as Coinbase prepares to report third-quarter earnings on October 30. Analysts expect revenue of $1.74 billion, up 44% year-over-year, driven by stablecoin growth and improved exchange volumes, as highlighted by Coinotag. With the Base token, USDC monetization, and DEX integration in play, the firm's stock appears poised to outperform in a sector still grappling with volatility.