Barrick Mining Surges 9.71% on Bullish Technical Signals Extends Three-Day Rally to 14.39% Gain

Barrick Mining (B) has surged 9.71% in the most recent session, extending its three-day winning streak with a cumulative gain of 14.39%. This sharp upward momentum, coupled with elevated trading volumes and a recent breakout above key resistance levels, sets the stage for a detailed technical analysis. Below is a structured evaluation of the stock’s price behavior across multiple analytical frameworks, with a focus on confluence points and divergences.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action exhibits a strong bullish engulfing pattern, with the last three sessions forming a series of higher highs and higher lows. A critical support level appears to be forming around $28.60–$28.84, based on prior consolidation, while resistance is now dynamically shifting to the upper band of the recent rally at $33.20. The formation of a "three white soldiers" pattern suggests continuation of the uptrend, but caution is warranted if the price fails to hold above $30.07, the prior 52-week pivot level.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (approx. $26.50) is well below the 200-day moving average ($20.50), confirming a long-term bullish bias. The current price of $32.99 sits significantly above both, indicating a strong uptrend. However, the 100-day moving average ($24.00) is converging with the 50-day line, suggesting potential for a temporary consolidation phase if the price retraces to the 200-day MA. A crossover of the 50-day above the 200-day would reinforce the bullish case, but this remains a medium-term signal.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded sharply in the last three sessions, reflecting accelerating momentum, while the signal line remains in positive territory. This aligns with the KDJ stochastic oscillator, which is currently overbought (K=85, D=78), indicating potential for a short-term pullback. Divergence between the KDJ’s overbought condition and the MACD’s bullish divergence (price highs > oscillator highs) suggests caution: while the trend is strong, overextended momentum may precede a correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has spiked, with the price reaching the upper Bollinger Band ($33.20) and the bands themselves widening. This expansion aligns with the recent breakout, but the narrow bands observed in late August (pre-September rally) suggest a prior period of consolidation. The current positioning near the upper band indicates heightened risk of mean reversion, though the strong volume profile supports the sustainability of the move.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volumes have surged to $2.3 billion in the last three sessions, a 2–3x increase from prior averages, validating the strength of the price action. However, the volume spike on the 9.71% rally day (Sep 19) was accompanied by a narrower price range ($30.15–$33.20), which may indicate aggressive buying at the top. This "volume surge with compressed range" pattern could foreshadow distribution, though further confirmation is needed.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI has spiked to 72, confirming overbought conditions. Historical data shows the RSI frequently oscillating between 50–70 during the rally, with the current level suggesting a potential near-term reversal. However, in a strong uptrend, RSI can remain overbought for extended periods (e.g., the 59-day period in June–July saw RSI above 70 for 10+ days without reversal). This creates a probabilistic divergence: while the RSI warns of overbought conditions, the broader trend may override this signal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the June 2025 low ($20.30) to the recent high ($33.20) include 61.8% at $28.95 and 78.6% at $31.50. The current price of $32.99 is approaching the 100% extension level, which historically acts as a dynamic resistance. A break above $33.20 could target the 127.2% level at $36.00, but a failure to hold above $31.50 would likely trigger a retest of the 61.8% support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of selling Barrick Mining when RSI exceeds 70 has yielded mixed results historically, with a 60% win rate over 10 days but lower returns in shorter (3-day) and longer (30-day) horizons. The maximum observed return of 1.84% on day 59 suggests that while the strategy can capture quick profits, it struggles to sustain gains in prolonged trends. This aligns with the current analysis: the RSI’s overbought signal is valid, but the broader technical setup (strong moving averages, expanding Bollinger Bands) implies the uptrend may outlast typical overbought thresholds. Traders using this strategy should incorporate additional filters, such as volume divergence or Fibonacci retracement levels, to improve probabilistic outcomes.