Barrick Mining (B) Surges 3.63% Amid Bullish Reversal, Technical Indicators Signal Short-Term Rally

Barrick Mining (B) surged 3.63% in the most recent session, closing at $24.84 after a bullish reversal from a prior 1.20% decline. This price action suggests a potential short-term recovery, warranting a detailed technical analysis to assess its sustainability.

Candlestick Theory

The recent candlestick pattern features a long white candle on 2025-08-20, indicating strong buying pressure. Key support levels can be identified at $22.50 (a recurring floor since early August) and $21.50 (a consolidation zone in late July). Resistance appears at $25.07 (the recent high) and $24.48 (prior peak). A bearish engulfing pattern on 2025-08-19 suggests temporary weakness, but the subsequent bullish reversal implies a possible short-term rally.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (calculated from the 1-year data) currently sits above the 200-day MA, signaling a bullish trend. The 100-day MA acts as a dynamic support at approximately $22.80. Price has consistently traded above the 50-day MA since late July, reinforcing the short-term uptrend. However, the 200-day MA at $21.50 remains a critical threshold; a break below this could trigger a retest of deeper support levels.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has shown a narrowing contraction, suggesting waning momentum, while the KDJ indicator (Stochastic) indicates overbought conditions, with %K and %D lines converging near 80. This divergence between MACD and KDJ highlights caution: while the MACD’s zero-line crossover on 2025-08-13 supported bullish momentum, the KDJ’s overbought reading may foreshadow a near-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the upper band at $25.30 and lower band at $23.80. Price has tested the upper band twice in the past week, suggesting overbought conditions. A break below the middle band ($24.50) could signal a shift in volatility, potentially leading to a consolidation phase.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked on 2025-08-20, reaching 23.2 million shares, validating the bullish price action. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. A sustained increase in volume during upward moves would strengthen the case for continued momentum, while divergent volume patterns could signal distribution.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at approximately 62, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish bias. While not yet in overbought territory (>70), the RSI has shown a recent uptrend, aligning with the price surge. Caution is warranted if the RSI crosses 70 without a corresponding volume spike, as this could signal a false breakout.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent high ($25.07) and low ($21.12) include 23.6% at $23.85, 38.2% at $23.14, and 50% at $23.09. The current price of $24.84 is near the 23.6% retracement level, suggesting potential resistance ahead. A breakdown below the 38.2% level would target the 50% retracement at $23.09 as a critical support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying Barrick Mining when its RSI exceeds 70 and selling when it drops to 70 has underperformed over the past year. Despite the recent 3.63% gain, the stock’s price has declined from $25.47 to $19.86, a 21.86% drawdown. This outcome underscores the limitations of relying solely on RSI for entry/exit signals in a stock with prolonged volatility and structural downtrend tendencies. The strategy failed to account for divergences between RSI and price action, as well as the lack of volume confirmation during overbought conditions.