The Bardella Effect: How France's Far Right Navigates a Leadership Crisis Ahead of 2027

The conviction of Marine Le Pen in March 2025 for misusing €4.1 million in European Parliament funds has thrust France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) into a leadership crisis. With Le Pen barred from holding public office for five years—and thus ineligible for the 2027 presidential election—her protégé, 29-year-old Jordan Bardella, has emerged as the party’s likely replacement. The political drama raises critical questions: Can Bardella replicate Le Pen’s electoral success? How might his candidacy reshape France’s political landscape—and its economic trajectory?

The Legal Quagmire and Its Immediate Impact

Le Pen’s March 31, 2025, conviction for embezzlement triggered an automatic five-year ban on holding office, effectively ending her 2027 candidacy unless overturned on appeal. The court’s ruling also imposed fines totaling €2.1 million on her party and a four-year prison sentence (two suspended). While Le Pen retains her parliamentary seat pending appeal, her legal team faces an uphill battle. A court of appeals aims to rule by summer 2026, leaving a narrow window to restore her eligibility.

The verdict has already destabilized the RN. Le Pen’s supporters, including far-right allies like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, frame the ruling as a “democratic scandal,” while critics argue it underscores the erosion of legal impunity for powerful politicians. For investors, the uncertainty highlights the risks of France’s polarized political climate.

The CAC 40’s 12% volatility spike in Q1 2025—coinciding with the Le Pen trial and conviction—reflects investor nervousness about policy continuity. A far-right shift in 2027 could amplify this volatility, particularly if Bardella’s stance on EU relations or fiscal reforms diverges from centrist norms.

The Bardella Factor: Strengths and Vulnerabilities

Bardella, the RN’s president since 2021, is positioned as the party’s “Plan B.” His youth and social media savviness (he boasts over 500,000 TikTok followers) have bolstered his appeal among younger voters, but his lack of experience looms large.

• Strengths:
• Popularity: A 2025 poll by Ipsos-Sopra Steria found Bardella’s favorability at 39%, exceeding Le Pen’s 35% among RN voters.
• Policy Alignment: He has mirrored Le Pen’s hardline stance on immigration, sovereignty, and euroskepticism, appealing to the party’s base.

• Mobilization: Post-conviction, Bardella has galvanized supporters with calls to “fight the system,” echoing Le Pen’s victimhood narrative.

• Weaknesses:

• Name Recognition: Only 52% of French voters recognize Bardella, compared to Le Pen’s 91%, per Elabe polling.
• Electoral Inexperience: He has never run for national office, and his parliamentary tenure began just six years ago.
• Internal Resistance: Some party members cling to Le Pen’s legacy, with one RN local official stating, “I don’t want a leader who can’t win without Marine’s name.”

Electoral and Market Implications

Bardella’s potential candidacy hinges on two variables: the outcome of Le Pen’s appeal and his ability to translate base support into broader appeal.

1. Scenario 1: Appeal Success (Le Pen Reinstated)
2. Political Impact: The RN reverts to its status quo, with Le Pen retaining her frontrunner position (projected 32–37% of the vote in 2027 polls).

3. Market Impact: Reduced political uncertainty could stabilize the CAC 40, though Le Pen’s euroskepticism would still pressure Franco-German relations and EU cohesion.

4. Scenario 2: Appeal Fails (Bardella Runs)

5. Political Impact: Bardella’s candidacy risks fracturing the far right. Polls suggest he would underperform Le Pen by 10–15 points, potentially ceding votes to centrists or splinter candidates.
6. Market Impact: Heightened volatility, with investors wary of Bardella’s untested policies. A weaker RN performance might embolden pro-EU centrist parties, stabilizing investor confidence.

Current polls show Le Pen leading with 35% in a hypothetical first round, compared to Bardella’s 22%. This gap underscores the risks of a leadership handover.

Conclusion: A High-Reward, High-Risk Gamble

The RN’s future—and France’s political economy—rests on two pivots: the courts and Bardella’s ability to transcend his “Plan B” status. If Le Pen’s appeal succeeds, the status quo persists, with investors weighing her euroskepticism against her proven electoral strength. If not, Bardella’s underdog campaign could redefine far-right politics in Europe.

For investors, the calculus is stark:
- Short-Term: Monitor the CAC 40’s volatility, which may spike if the appeal ruling nears.
- Long-Term: Track Bardella’s polling performance. A narrowing gap with Le Pen’s projected numbers could signal market stabilization.

History suggests that far-right leaders often defy expectations, but Bardella faces an uphill climb. Without Le Pen’s gravitas, the RN risks losing its edge in a crowded 2027 race—a gamble with profound implications for France’s political and economic trajectory.