Barclays Reiterates Buy Rating on Unum Group (UNM): Assessing the Insurance Sector's Resilience Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty

The global economy in 2025 remains a patchwork of uncertainty, with trade tensions, geopolitical instability, and uneven growth across regions creating headwinds for many industries. Yet, the insurance sector has demonstrated remarkable resilience. According to the mid-year Global Insurance Market Report (GIMAR) 2025 by the International Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS), the sector has maintained stable solvency, liquidity, and profitability despite these challengesIAIS mid-year Global Insurance Market Report 2025 reflects insurance sector resilience^[1]. This backdrop sets the stage for Barclays' recent reaffirmation of a “Buy” rating on Unum Group (UNM), a move that underscores both the company's strategic strengths and the broader industry's adaptability.

Unum Group: A Case Study in Strategic Resilience

Barclays analyst Alex Scott reiterated the “Buy” rating on Unum Group in September 2025, raising the price target to $92 (a 21.2% upside from the stock's closing price at the time) following the company's presentation at the Barclays Global Financial Services ConferenceBarclays Reitrated Buy Rating on Unum Group^[2]. The firm highlighted Unum's focus on mid-single-digit premium growth and its consistent execution on earnings per share (EPS) expansion as key drivers of long-term value.

Unum's strategic initiatives further bolster its appeal. The company has invested heavily in technology, particularly in its HR Connect platform, which streamlines employee benefits administration for clientsBarclays Reaffirms Their Buy Rating on Unum Group^[3]. Additionally, Unum has proactively de-risked its legacy long-term care (LTC) business, a historically volatile segment, to enhance capital efficiency and long-term stabilityBarclays Sticks to Its Buy Rating for Unum Group^[4]. These moves align with broader industry trends, such as the shift toward private credit investments and AI-driven operational efficiency, which the IAIS report identifies as critical for maintaining returns in a low-growth environmentIAIS mid-year Global Insurance Market Report 2025 reflects insurance sector resilience^[1].

Barclays' confidence is echoed by other analysts. BMO Capital's Jack Matten also maintains a “Buy” rating, and the stock currently holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus with a $96.42 average price targetUNM: Barclays Raises Price Target for Unum Group to $96^[5]. Notably, Barclays itself raised its price target from $89 to $96 in recent months, reflecting growing optimism about Unum's ability to navigate macroeconomic headwindsUNM: Barclays Raises Price Target for Unum Group to $96^[5].

Broader Sector Trends: Growth Amid Uncertainty

The insurance sector's resilience is not isolated to Unum. MAPFRE Economics projects that life insurance will grow by 6.2% in 2025, driven by moderating inflation and improved investment returnsThe insurance sector shows resilience despite economic and geopolitical challenges^[6]. Non-life insurance is also gaining momentum, particularly in North America, where mature markets and strong demand dynamics are fueling expansionThe insurance sector shows resilience despite economic and geopolitical challenges^[6]. Meanwhile, the reinsurance sector has shown price improvements in January 2025 renewals, even after losses from events like the California wildfiresThe insurance sector shows resilience despite economic and geopolitical challenges^[7].

Beyond financial metrics, the industry is redefining its role in society. The World Economic Forum (WEF) emphasizes that insurers are evolving from passive risk mitigators to active partners in building societal resilience. Initiatives to strengthen insurability in a warming world and mobilize capital for climate-resilient infrastructure are gaining tractionFrom safety net to resilience-builder: how the insurance industry is redefining its role^[8]. These efforts not only address the growing insurance protection gap but also position the sector for long-term relevance in a rapidly changing economic and environmental landscape.

Conclusion: A Compelling Investment Case

Unum Group's strategic focus on technology, de-risking, and operational efficiency positions it as a standout within the insurance sector. Barclays' elevated price target and the broader industry's resilience amid macroeconomic uncertainty create a compelling case for investors. While challenges such as geopolitical instability and climate risks persist, the insurance sector's adaptability—evidenced by its diversified portfolios and innovation—suggests that companies like Unum are well-equipped to thrive.

As the global economy continues to navigate a complex landscape, Unum's combination of disciplined growth and proactive risk management offers a blueprint for long-term success. For investors seeking exposure to a sector that balances stability with growth potential, Unum Group's current valuation and strategic trajectory warrant serious consideration.