Barclays Maintains Sell Rating on Enphase Energy with $29 Price Target

Barclays maintains a Sell rating for Enphase Energy with a price target of $29.00, following a report from Christine Cho CFA. Enphase Energy has a consensus rating of Hold with a price target of $40.29, implying a 10.44% upside from current levels. The company has seen positive corporate insider activity with 24 insiders buying shares over the past quarter.

Barclays analyst Christine Cho has raised the price target for Enphase Energy (ENPH) to $29, up from the previous target of $28, while maintaining an Underweight rating. This adjustment comes as the company prepares to introduce a new financial product expected to play a significant role in transitioning into the lease market [1].

Based on the one-year price targets offered by 33 analysts, the average target price for Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) is $45.55, with a high estimate of $85.00 and a low estimate of $19.80. The average target implies an upside of 24.88% from the current price of $36.48. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) Forecast page [1].

The consensus recommendation from 37 brokerage firms indicates an average rating of 3.1, indicating a "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies a Strong Buy, and 5 denotes a Sell [1].

GuruFocus estimates the GF Value for Enphase Energy Inc (ENPH) in one year to be $100.44, suggesting an upside of 175.33% from the current price of $36.48. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at, calculated based on historical multiples, past business growth, and future estimates of performance [1].

Enphase Energy reported a strong quarterly revenue of $363.2 million for Q2 2025, with significant shipments of 1.53 million microinverters and 190.9 megawatt hours of battery. The company achieved a high gross margin of 49% and an operating income of 27% as a percentage of revenue on a non-GAAP basis [1].

However, Enphase Energy faces several challenges. The company anticipates a 20% reduction in total addressable market (TAM) in 2026 due to the expiration of the 25D homeowner tax credit. Additionally, the company is experiencing slightly elevated microinverter channel inventory levels, which may require strategic management to avoid oversupply. Tariffs continue to impact gross margins, with an estimated 3% to 5% margin headwind expected in Q3 due to new tariff increases on several non-China countries. The European market remains challenging, with subdued demand in key regions like France and the Netherlands, impacting overall growth [1].

Enphase Energy's stock price has seen a decline of over 5% despite beating second-quarter earnings expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.69 per share, beating the $0.62 estimate. However, it guided Q3 midpoint revenue of $350 million, which is below the consensus estimate of $369.7 million. The disappointing outlook reflects multiple challenges facing the solar industry, including tariff headwinds and market contraction in 2026 [2].

Despite these challenges, Enphase Energy is pursuing a strategic approach to mitigate market contraction. The company is expanding access to lease financing for long-tail installers through TPO partnerships, driving down installation costs with next-generation products, and reducing customer acquisition costs through enhanced lead generation services [2].

The market's negative reaction to ENPH stock reflects concerns about near-term margin pressure and structural challenges facing the residential solar industry. However, Enphase Energy's diversified product portfolio, international expansion, and focus on driving down installation costs position it to maintain market leadership through the transition [2].

References:
[1] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/3000380/enphase-energy-enph-price-target-raised-by-barclays-enph-stock-news
[2] https://www.tikr.com/blog/enphase-energy-stock-slumps-over-5-as-q3-forecasts-disappoint-wall-street