Bank of Japan's June Policy Meeting Could Boost Bitcoin by 78%

The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) upcoming monetary policy meeting, scheduled for June 16–17, is anticipated to be a pivotal moment for global risk assets, including Bitcoin. The central bank's decision on interest rates and potential shifts in its quantitative easing (QE) policies are closely watched by market participants. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer of Maelstrom, has suggested that if the BOJ delays quantitative tightening (QT) and restarts selected QE, it could significantly boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Hayes' prediction is based on the potential for the BOJ to pivot its monetary policy. QE involves central banks buying bonds and injecting money into the economy to lower interest rates and stimulate spending, especially during challenging economic conditions. The BOJ introduced a plan to reduce government bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter starting in August 2024, with an interim assessment scheduled for the June meeting. This assessment could provide an opportunity for the central bank to adjust its policies, potentially leading to a restart of QE.

Historically, the Japanese bond market crisis has influenced Bitcoin's price movements. For instance, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $112,000 on May 22, 2025, just two days after the 30-year yield on Japanese bonds hit a new all-time high of 3.185% on May 20, 2025. This correlation highlights how concerns about Japan's sovereign bond market can drive institutions to view Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign default risks. André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise, noted that as perceived default risks and yields rise, Bitcoin's role as a safe haven asset becomes more pronounced. He suggested that Bitcoin could potentially reach $200,000, given its freedom from counterparty risk.

The potential for the BOJ to restart QE could further fuel this trend, as institutions seek alternative assets to hedge against rising bond yields and economic uncertainties. The central bank's decision in June will be closely monitored, as it could provide the next significant catalyst for Bitcoin and other risk assets.